Your Week 9 college football viewing guide: Breaking down/predicting Michigan vs. Michigan State, plus other key games from around the country
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Another week, another strong slate of games to break down. As usual, this feature will serve as the free weekly offering to non-premium subscribers. But if you’re interested in podcasts, written analysis, future video analysis and more, you can look into the premium subscription offerings below.
I went 6-4 against the spread last week, including my third outright win when it comes to my upset pick of the week. Last week’s pick rode Indiana over Penn State, predicting a one-point win. I’d love to take all the credit for that, but I owe James Franklin a special thanks for making that happen. Couple that with my 4-1 mark ATS the previous week, and things are looking pretty good as of late.
Here’s my breakdown for Michigan’s game, the other six — eh, make that five — Big Ten games and then my three most watchable non-B1G games from around the country this Saturday.
Week 9 Viewing Guide
Michigan State at Michigan, noon (FOX)
Over the past decade, I’ve had a pretty tried-and-true approach to the Michigan-Michigan State game. Whether I feel like Michigan is going to win or not, if the Spartans are getting points: take them.
This year, I will not be going that route — even though it’s been the right way to approach these games as of late, last year’s 44-10 victory notwithstanding.
Why? Well, because I have eyes.
Michigan and Michigan State couldn’t be on two more different trajectories right now. The Wolverines just had their most impressive season opener in years, if not decades. They more than doubled up a top-25 opponent on the road and did so while having to break in a ton of new, inexperienced starters. After an opening drive that ended in a blocked punt, Michigan never punted the ball again and scored 49 points. It scored through the air, on the ground and on defense. It set itself up well with key returns and forced turnovers. It had an incredibly long list of contributors on offense and Joe Milton met, nay — exceeded, just about every single expectation that was placed on him entering the season.
Michigan State? Well, the Spartans lost to a Rutgers team that entered the game (which was played in East Lansing, by the way) on a 21-game conference losing streak, one of the longest major-conference losing streaks in the modern college football era. And it wasn’t a fluke loss, either. Rutgers led 14-0 early in the game and had a double-digit lead for more than half of the contest, including when the game ended.
Did Michigan leave room for improvement? Of course. There were a couple major areas of concern for most after the opener: the kicking game and Michigan’s run defense (Mo Ibrahim had a 26-140-2 line. Michigan’s run defense didn’t look so bad with sack-adjusted numbers in there [41-129-2], but there’s no ignoring the fact that Minnesota ran the ball better than most expected against the Wolverine run D.)
But here’s the thing: Michigan’s biggest question mark on D that leaves open a potential opening for opposing teams is Michigan State’s biggest weakness on offense, too. Michigan State managed an embarrassing 1.3 yards per carry against RUTGERS. Does anyone really expect the Spartans to break out on the ground against Michigan’s front?
Michigan is going to strike early. Michigan is going to strike often. And if things play out the way I’m imaging them (Jim Harbaugh feels obligated to keep Joe Milton and Co. in later than normal in a blowout because of their need to get extra reps), Michigan is going to strike late, too.
I expect a bigger margin of victory than last year’s 44-10 blowout. And I expect a continued shaky start to the Mel Tucker era in East Lansing.
Line: Michigan: -25
Prediction: Michigan 52, Michigan State 10
Purdue at Illinois, noon (BTN)
Each week I try to guess the lines of the following week based on my eye-test impressions from the week that just finished up. With Purdue coming off a big win over Iowa (though admittedly, the Boilermakers’ win over Iowa was a lot like Indiana’s win over Penn State — a game that statistically played out like the other team should’ve won) and Illinois’ blowout loss to Wisconsin, I expected this week’s line to be steeper than a TD. So does that mean I trust my eyes or trust Vegas? As self-confident and borderline arrogant as I am, one would think that answer would be my eyes. But Vegas is smart. If there’s a line that seems too good to be true, it usually is. Everything tells me Purdue seems like the obvious choice here. But in my experience, you accept it’s not the way you think it should be for a reason and you go with the experts.
I know most people won’t be watch this game live anyway, but make sure to check out the highlights. If you haven’t seen David Bell play yet, make sure you change that. He stepped up as Purdue’s WR1 last year as true freshman once Rondale Moore went down and he’s even more dominant this fall with Moore mysteriously on the shelf once again.
Line: Purdue: -7
Prediction: Purdue 31, Illinois 28
Indiana at Rutgers, 3:30 pm (BTN)
The Hoosiers can say all the right things leading up to this game, but it’s a classic letdown game by any definition. They’re coming off their program’s first top-10 win in 33 years. Yes, not a misprint. Not only that, but the big win against the Nittany Lions is bookended by a game against Michigan next weekend. That leaves Rutgers as the meat in this letdown sandwich — a Scarlet Knight squad that actually has to feel good about itself for the first time since the early stages of Barack Obama’s second term.
The thing a lot of people aren’t talking about (especially the guy that decided to put Indiana in the top 10 of his AP ballot) is that Indiana looked pretty bad on offense for the vast majority of the game. Michael Penix make big plays down the stretch, but it will be interesting to see which is the norm: the Indiana offense that looked pretty meh for most of the game, or the one that rose to the occasion late.
Either way, I think 12 points is a ton to be giving up given what’s next on Indiana’s plate, and just based on how hard Rutgers plays under Greg Schiano. I expect the Hoosiers to win to set up a matchup against a pair of top-15 teams next week, but I’d be pretty surprised to see Indiana win by double digits.
Line: Indiana: -12
Prediction: Indiana 28, Rutgers 24
Northwestern at Iowa, 3:30 pm (ESPN2)
I never thought I’d non-sarcastically say this, but “I probably won’t be watching much of this game live because my attention will be on the Rutgers game.” Both of these teams surprised me last week in different ways. Iowa lost to Purdue in a game that I didn’t think it had any business losing. The Hawkeyes still statistically outplayed the Boilermakers, but that’s a game you have to win, especially when the underdog opposition is without its coach and its best player. Northwestern, on the other hand, surprised me in a good way. I didn’t expect the Wildcats to be able to put up a ton of points. But that’s exactly what they did against Maryland.
So do I trust my instincts about how I feel about both of these teams’ rosters, or do I let last week’s results trump my instincts? I think I’ll stick with the instincts here and pick Iowa to win straight and against the spread.
Line: Iowa: -2.5
Prediction: Iowa 27, Northwestern 21
Ohio State at Penn State, 7:30 pm (abc)
The whole “night game at Penn State” thing loses some of its luster when a White Out would consist of about 150 family members in the crowd as opposed to 105,000 screaming fans for four straight hours at night. But such is the scheduling luck involved with the 2020 season — whatdya know, Ohio State caught a break for once.
(Speaking out White Outs, can we talk about Ohio State’s cutout situation from its game last week? Not great, Bob.)
It’s hard to imagine Penn State could start a season 0-2 after entering the season comfortably on everyone’s top 10 lists, and inside some peoples’ top 5 lists. But it’s even harder to prognosticate Ohio State struggling in this one. Yes, Penn State’s defense is good — don’t let the Indiana final score fool you, there was some weird stuff at play in that game. But Ohio State is arguably the most talented team in America, and Ryan Day and Co. need to collect some style points since the teams ahead of them in the polls have already had a month’s head start to make an impression on voters. The Buckeyes showed last week they’re not afraid to score late to make an impact and I expect that to remain the case on Saturday night. And with that philosophy, it’s hard for me to see Ohio State winning by less than a couple touchdowns, and I think a backdoor cover from Penn State is less likely to happen.
Line: Ohio State: -12
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Penn State 14
Minnesota at Maryland, 7:30 pm (ESPN — Friday night)
Maryland is the only team in the Big Ten that I would pick to lose to Michigan State at this stage of the season. That’s really all I have to say about this game. The news that Daniel Faalele and Curtis Dunlap Jr.’s absences weren’t just a one-week thing is going to make things a little tougher for the Gophers, but in general, I feel like Minnesota ran the ball against Michigan better than most expected, and Tanner Morgan should have more time to get rid of the ball facing Maryland’s defensive front compared to a Paye/Hutchinson-led Michigan front.
So I’ll take Minnesota, despite that hefty spread, and expect to see Rashod Bateman do some of the things Michigan fans were so fearful that he’d do against Michigan’s secondary.
Line: Minnesota: -20
Prediction: Minnesota 41, Maryland 17
Three non-Big Ten games worth watching
Memphis at Cincinnati, noon (ESPN)
The AAC is one of the most watchable conferences in all of college football. Cincinnati may not play the same style that UCF, SMU and Memphis do, but the Bearcats showed last week that excitement and effectiveness aren’t the same thing on their way to a blowout victory over SMU.
Cincy QB Desmond Ridder was really performing below expectations prior to the SMU game, to the point where he might have been playing himself out of the starting job after posting a 3 INT game against South Florida. But he returned to form (and then some) against SMU with 179 yards rushing and 3 TDs to go along with a solid passing night, too. If his baseline performance can be about 75% of that, Cincy’s defense is good enough for it to run the table and earn the G5’s New Year’s Six berth.
But Memphis isn’t going to make life easy on that Cincy defense this weekend. The Tigers shouldn’t be as dangerous as they are. Star RB Kenneth Gainwell opted out before the season, then star WR Damonte Coxie opted out just a couple weeks ago in the middle of the season. That offense keeps on purring, though, with young WRs Calvin Austin and Tahj Washington stepping up in Coxie’s absense and Rodrigues Clark and Kylan Watkins filling the void at RB. Memphis has scored more than 90 points in its last two games and it will give Cincy all it can handle coming on the heels of a draining game against SMU last Saturday night.
I still think Cincinnati finds a way to win and keeps its unbeaten season alive, but Memphis will find a way to keep this close and secure the cover.
Line: Memphis -6.5
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Memphis 28
Texas at Oklahoma State, 4 pm (FOX) — bonus: also serving as my upset watch for the week
Texas’ Big 12 title hopes are hanging by a thread after a pair of early losses, but the Longhorns still have a lot to play for. Yes, they can play the spoiler role. But they can also play the savior role for current head coach Tom Herman, whose seat has gotten hotter by the week, with a slight reprieve after last week’s win over Baylor (which still wasn’t exactly the most impressive game played). There’s a lot of Urban Meyer talk in Austin these days. And on a personal level, I could go without him becoming a resident of my home state.
As for the matchup itself, the Cowboys are the favorites for a reason (and I actually expected them to be a little bigger favorite than they are). Oklahoma State picked up a big win over Iowa State last week and Spencer Sanders looked good in his return as the team’s starting QB. Tylan Wallace is an all-world WR regardless of who is throwing him the ball, but his threat level increases when it’s Sanders throwing him the ball instead of a freshman signal caller.
But to me, it comes down to this: This is a crossroads for Texas’ season. More than half of the Longhorns’ remaining games are against ranked foes. A 3-2 record could go either way. Beat the first-place team in the conference and you’re not necessarily out of the race for a berth to the Big 12 Championship Game with some remaining head-to-head matchups against other teams you’ll be competing for a spot with. But lose and you’re 3-3 and staring at a couple other really tough games to close the season. I think Sam Ehlinger has a put-them-on-your-shoulders-and-will-them-to-victory game left in his toolkit, and this just feels like a week where he’d cash it in. Put me down for an upset win in the final minute of the game.
Line: Oklahoma State -3.5
Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 35
Arkansas at Texas A&M, 7:30 (SEC Network)
Very impressed with Sam Pittman and the mentality he has instilled in his new program in such a short time. The Razorbacks are 2-2 this season with a pair of wins coming against SEC West foes, and their two losses being a two-point loss at Auburn where Arkansas got screwed on a bad call late in the game, and an opening-week matchup against Georgia that doesn’t look great on paper (37-10), but Arkansas led the game for the first 60% of it before Georgia just blew up for the final 20 minutes.
I’ve been open about how I was too hard on Texas A&M coming into this season, and the Aggies have looked good in wins against Florida and Mississippi State its last two gameso out. But a double-digit total is just too many points to lay against an Arkansas team that has too much pride to get blown out in a rivalry game.
Line: Texas A&M -12.5
Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Arkansas 20
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