Your Week 4 college football viewing guide: The five best games to watch this weekend, plus predictions, upset pick of the week and more

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Sep 25, 2020

We’ve finally made it. After Week 2 and Week 3 slates that were … less than desirable, we’ve reached the part of the college football calendar that actually has some exciting matchups. Teams from the three major conferences whose seasons are underway — the SEC, ACC and Big 12 — all kick off conference play in earnest this weekend. So we don’t have to worry about including teams like Wake Forest, North Texas and Tulsa in my weekly write-ups.

Before we jump into the Week 4 viewing guide, I wanted to bring some content from earlier in the week back to the top in case you missed any of it. I’ll separate it by free and premium content for those of you who only subscribe for the free stuff.

Week 4 viewing guide

Five Games to Watch

The past few weeks, it was kind of a heavy lift trying to find five games that could be considered endorsement-worthy. This week, we’re on the other end of the spectrum. It’s hard to whittle this list down to just five. But I guess that’s a good problem to have. Here’s my list, which is determined by my own super-secret, proprietary algorithm that factors in competitiveness of the game, how fun each team is to watch, game time/TV accessibility and particularly dynamic players to watch.

5. Louisville at Pitt, noon (ACC Network)

Jordan Addison might be the best freshman WR in America if your criteria extends beyond pure skill and includes factors like opportunities and targets. Kenny Pickett is deceptively athletic and once Taysir Mack returns to the Pitt offense, the usually run-first Panther offense will boast one of the deepest collection of passing game weapons in the ACC when you also consider players like Shocky Jacques-Louis.

I like Louisville a lot. I sang the Cardinals’ praises last week in advance of the Miami (FL) game, and even though the Hurricanes ended up leaving with that W, there’s a lot to like about Louisville’s three-headed monster of Micale Cunningham, Javian Hawkins and Tutu Atwell on offense. But that game had way too many defensive busts for me to be able to confidently predict a Louisville road win this week against a well-coached Pitt team. Louisville win continue to find itself in “fun guilty pleasure to watch” category for me, but it will need to show more competency on the other side of the ball to earn “team I’d feel confident betting on” status.

Line: Pitt -3

Prediction: Pitt 31, Louisville 21

4. Iowa State at TCU, 1:30 pm (FS1)

TCU is one of a couple Big 12 teams entering Saturday’s action looking to get its first game action of the season. That’s an unfortunate break for some — especially ones whose previously scheduled games were due to outbreaks by opponents, not their own team (for what it’s worth, TCU does it fall into this category. Its game against SMU was canceled because of an outbreak on TCU’s side of things). But the Big 12 teams looking to play their first games of the season on Saturday aren’t the schools in the conference that are the worst off. There’s a handful of schools — led by previously ranked Iowa State — eagerly counting down the days/hours to this week becaus they want to get the bad taste of their first game out of their mouths. Iowa State falls into this category. The Cyclones, lauded in the preseason by some (¯\_(ツ)_/¯), fell to Louisiana-Lafayette and fell out of the top 25 a couple Saturdays ago.

So it’s pretty clear both teams want to come out of the gates hot on Saturday. But that seems like a more desperate need for Iowa State. Brock Purdy is due for a much stronger game than he had in his opener, and even though TCU is traditionally the Big 12’s toughest defense, he should have the opportunity to do so while TCU tries to get back into the swing of playing games. On the TCU offensive side of things, I’ll be very curious to see if Max Duggan ends up playing QB. Duggan is TCU’s top QB but looked like his season (and maybe even career?) could be over last month. But now he’s suddenly showing back up on depth charts and might see action this Saturday. Also in action: the enigmatic RB Zach Evans, who had one of the more winding/interesting recruitments in recent memory. He has the ability to be a 1,000-yard rusher as a true freshman, but his biggest issue holding him back is himself — he’s had some self-inflicted attitudinal issues that have gotten him in trouble in past years.

In the battle of two of the three Big 12 teams who continually seem to get the most out of the players on its roster (Kansas State is also in that conversation), I like the Cyclones getting enough from Breece Hall on the ground to pick up a big road win and avoid a brutal 0-2 start.

Line: Iowa State -3

Prediction: Iowa State 28, TCU 17

3. Texas at Texas Tech, 3:30 pm (FOX)

The Texas-Texas Tech rivalry has produced some really great college football memories, none more burned into my brain than Michael Crabtree’s incredible catch in the final seconds to dethrone Texas from No. 1 in the country.

As for this year’s version of this rivalry, I have a hard time seeing it play out in a scenario that doesn’t include Texas pulling away thanks to its passing game. The Longhorn offense looked really good in its season debut — the pass-happy Mike Yurcich offense and Heisman candidate Sam Ehlinger seem like a match made in heavy. And as good as Texas’ passing offense looked in its opener, that’s how poorly Texas Tech’s passing defense looked in its own opener, giving up hundreds of yards and quite a few points to lowly Houston Baptist.

As is tradition, Texas Tech’s passing offense should have some exciting connections of its own over the course of this game, but I can’t imagine the Red Raiders have the firepower to be able to answer the Longhorns on a consistent basis for 60 whole minutes.

It’s a safe bet to expect this to be a fun game, but don’t allow yourself to lose any sleep when it comes to this being a competitive contest.

Line: Texas -18

Prediction: Texas 45, Texas Tech 24

2. Florida State at Miami, 7:30 pm (ABC)

This won’t have the allure of Florida State-Miami games of the past, but it’s definitely the best primetime game on the slate. And any opportunity you get to watch D’Eriq King play in a college football game, you better jump all over that.

Miami (FL)’s win over Louisville last weekend was very impressive. And the amount of skill talent around King is stronger than I initially anticipated. Cam’Ron Harris breezed past 100 yards on the ground without even reaching double-digit carries. Brevin Jordan continued to show that he’s potentially the best tight end in America. And true freshman Jaylan Knighton showed himself to be a potential gamebreaker with his 75-yard touchdown.

The Seminoles have only gotten to play once so far this season, and that was a disappointing home loss to Georgia Tech. They’ll look to show a little more on offense than they did against the Yellow Jackets. An added wrinkle that might make offensive progress more difficult: No Florida State coach Mike Norvell on the sidelines. Norvell recently tested positive for COVID-19, making his already very odd 2020 even odder.

I’m still a believer in Florida State getting back to Florida State standards in future years, but I’m firmly backing Miami (FL) in this battle of once-proud programs hoping to get back to proud status once again.

Line: Miami (FL) -11

Prediction: Miami (FL) 38, Florida State 24

1. Mississippi State at LSU, 3:30 pm (CBS)

LSU is more than a two-touchdown favorite, so this may look like an odd choice for most watchable game. But when you consider the fact that this is the first time we’ll get to see the defending national champs play in nine months, coupled with the fact that it’s Mike Leach’s debut as an SEC coach on the other side of the field, the possibilities are endless.

Myles Brennan will give us a pretty good idea if last year’s historic LSU season was all Joe Burrow, or if it had more to do with LSU’s new system. With Joe Brady’s departure from LSU to the Carolina Panthers, we’ll also learn if LSU’s air-it-out system from a year ago can still be effective under a new offensive coordinator. And we’ll also get to see just how deep that LSU offense was last year, with Clyde Edwards Helaire and Justin Jefferson being early NFL Draft picks to one-time 2020 Biletnikoff favorite Ja’Marr Chase opting out of the season and preparing for the 2021 NFL draft. There are a lot of good players ready to step in and show they can be next up — John Emery, Terrace Marshall, Racey McMath and Arik Gilbert all look like they could have the “it” factor to me, but it will be interesting to see how it translates now that real games are happening.

For Mississippi State, I’m absolutely fascinated to see how the Mike Leach era goes over in a place like Starkville. You can’t dispute just how successful he was in turning around one of the worst Power 5 programs in America when he took over the Washington State program last decade. But it’s easier to work your way up into a perennial top-25 team when you’re competing in the Pac-12 than in the SEC … especially the SEC West.

I think Stanford transfer KJ Costello will be a great fit in that offense, and there are a lot of intriguing WRs with interesting backstories looking to revamp their careers in the Leach Air Raid system (I like JaVonta Payton and Tyrell Shavers best heading into the season), but it sure is a tough draw to have your first game at a new school be against the defending national champion — a defending national champion that arguably had the most impressive title run in the history of college football by using various measures of success.

But even though this probably won’t go down to the wire, the curiosity factor makes this a pretty clear No. 1 game for me this weekend.

Line: LSU -16

Prediction: LSU 38, Mississippi State 28

Upset watch: Kentucky (+7) at Auburn, (noon, SEC Network)

Record in previous upset picks (2-0): Marshall (+5) over Appalachian State [Marshall won outright] | Arkansas State (+10.5) over Kansas State [Arkansas State won outright]

I don’t care how bad the rest of my picks end up — if I keep nailing my upset pick every week, I’m still going to brag and try to convince everyone that I’m some kind of a genius.

My pick this week in an effort to make it a hat trick is Kentucky pulling off an upset on the road against Auburn. I actually like Auburn quite a bit on paper. Chad Morris’ star has dimmed quite a bit after his poor showing as a head coach in Arkansas, but I think he’s a great fit running the Tiger offense as their new offensive coordinator. And I think that Auburn should reap the rewards of playing Bo Nix as a true freshman QB last year and getting a lot of his growing pains out of his system. Pairing him with Seth Williams gives Auburn a home-run threat on any given snap. AP voters seem to be buying into that hype, too, since they have Auburn in their top 10 at No. 8.

But I think this game could be ripe for an upset for a couple of reasons. First, Kentucky gets Terry Wilson back at QB. Mark Stoops gets major props from me for not letting things go off the rails last year when Wilson went down for the reason and Lynn Bowden made the transition from WR to QB. The fact that Kentucky won four straight to end the 2019 season and five out of six is only a couple steps shy of remarkable, and I think this year’s team can make the step up from “sneaky underrated” to “legitimately good” with most of its personnel back and healthy. I also think Auburn has a lot of positional battles to still be working out, and has the look of a team that will be considerably better a few games into the season than in their opener, since there are a number of talented RBs jockeying for carries that will all get a little bit of a live tryout against Kentucky. I think the Wildcats have a better chance pulling off an upset in a game where a handful of backs are getting a crack at it than they would be in a November game where a player like Tank Bigsby may have broken out by then and would have the green light to get 20 or 25 carries in a game and really put his imprint on the game.

I’ll take Kentucky on the road by a field goal. And if this one ends up coming to fruition, too, you might as well just unsubscribe from this e-mail list, because I’ll be completely unbearable with all the bragging that will come as a result of a 3-0 start picking pure underdogs.

That’s all for this week. If you’re interested in being able to read all of the upcoming content — both free and premium — I highly suggest you look into a premium membership.