Your Week 6 college football viewing guide: The five best games to watch this weekend, plus predictions, upset pick of the week and more

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Oct 10, 2020

You know the drill at this point. Each week, I choose the five best games to plan a Saturday full of college football around.

Before we get to this week’s guide, here’s a list of recent newsletters, podcasts and other pieces of content I’ve put out, in case you’ve missed it. I’ve separated them by premium and free. If you’re currently not a premium member, I’d highly suggest looking into it. Once we hit the Michigan portion of the college football schedule, basically anything that has to do with Michigan will be considered premium content.

Recent podcasts

Premium: Interview with former U-M star OL Jon Jansen | Interview with former U-M star OL Grant Newsome | Interview with Michigan recruiting analyst EJ Holland

Free: Interview with Michigan alum/former Saturday Night Live cast member Mike O’Brien

Recent articles

Premium: Most recent mailbag | The 5 most important players on Michigan’s roster heading into 2020 | Michigan roundtable — previewing the 2020 season with nearly 20 U-M football experts

Free: Week 5 college football viewing guide/predictions | Week 4 college football viewing guide/predictions | Week 3 college football viewing guide/predictions | Week 2 college football viewing guide/predictions

Misc

Recent appearances on WTKA to talk U-M football: 10/5 | 9/28 | 9/21 | 9/14

New YouTube channel: Please subscribe for free here.

Week 6 viewing guide

Five Games to Watch

It’s a little thinner of a slate this week than in the past few weeks. Almost half of the Big 12 is on a bye. But there are still definitely some very watchable games this weekend, even if the luster is worn off a few of them relative to how we thought we’d be feeling about them a week ago — *cough* Texas-OU *cough.

Now is where I usually say “Ok, let’s get to this week’s games.” But I’d be remiss if I didn’t spend some of this space bragging about my picks from last week (go ahead and ignore that upset pick, though. No reason.) I said Texas -13 was wayyy too big of a line and to watch out for TCU (TCU 33, Texas 31). I said Alabama -18 was wayyy too small and that the Crimson Tide should win by close to double that (Bama 52, A&M 24). I said Oklahoma -8 was too big of a line for OU vs. Iowa State (Iowa State 37, Oklahoma 30). And I said SMU should get the win over favored Memphis (SMU 30, Memphis 27). Again — there’s no need to talk about the Auburn-Georgia game. It probably didn’t even happen. Let’s get to this week’s games:

5. Alabama at Ole Miss, 7:30 pm (ESPN)

This game isn’t going to be close, and there are some matchups of ranked teams vs. ranked teams that I’m actually leaving off this week’s guide to fit this matchup in (sorry Texas A&M vs. Florida — I’ve made my thoughts about this year’s Aggie squad quite clear in recent newsletters). But this is going to be worth a watch for the Lane Kiffin vs. Nick Saban aspect alone.

Kiffin doesn’t have the restraint to stop himself from saying shit about Nick Saban in the media or on social media. But I think we’re going to learn on Saturday that while Saban does have the restraint from getting in the mud with Kiffin when it comes to a war of words, Saban doesn’t have the restraint to prevent himself from pouring it on Kiffin on the field.

I actually really like what I’ve seen from Ole Miss’ offense the first two weeks of the season. Ole Miss is averaging 38 points per game and has played a pair of traditionally solid defenses in Florida and Kentucky. That’s largely due to Matt Corral (715 yards and 7 TDs through two games), who really seems to be thriving in this new system after struggling last year in Rich Rodriguez’s offense. But Alabama is a whole different beast — especially when there’s a motivated Nick Saban standing on the other sideline.

Line: Alabama -24

Prediction: Alabama 55, Ole Miss 24

4. Virginia Tech at North Carolina, noon (abc)

Despite the fact that the ACC started its season a couple weeks earlier than the SEC started theirs, the ACC has more remaining unbeaten teams than the SEC. In fact, the ACC has as many remaining undefeated teams as the SEC and Big 12 — the only other two P5 conferences currently playing — combined.

That number is sure to decrease this weekend, though, with four of the conference’s five remaining undefeated teams playing another fellow unbeaten ACC foe: Clemson vs. Miami (more on than game later) and Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina. The latter matchup may not have the national appeal that Clemson-Miami will have, but I expect this to be one of the best (and most watchable) games of the season.

I entered this season really excited about what North Carolina’s offense would look like this season, and it’s actually been a bit of a disappointment, despite the fact that the Tar Heels are still unbeaten. But I don’t think the start of this season has been indicative of their offensive ceiling and I think the Tar Heels are due for a breakout on offense any given weekend — with Saturday’s game being a great candidate. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has one of the more underrated running backs in the country in the middle of a breakout season. I have no idea what his plans are beyond this fall, but with him technically having another year of eligibility if he wants it, he could end up being one of (maybe the only?) running backs in the history of college football to run for at least 100 yards in six different seasons. He was always a dangerous home run threat at Kansas before getting lost in the depth chart behind Pooka Williams. After playing four games last year (running for 384 yards in those contests), he decided to preserve a final year of eligibility and grad transfer to Virginia Tech. If his first two games for the Hokies are any indication, it was a fantastic decision. He's looking like the best running back in America so far this season, rushing for 312 yards and 3 TD on just 26 carries (12.0 ypc!!) this season.

This game opened at -7 in North Carolina’s favor and has been bet down all the way to -3. It feels like a game I should be riding Virginia Tech on, but I just have a feeling North Carolina’s offense is on the verge of breaking out this weekend, so I’ll ride with Mack Brown’s crew instead. The Hokies aren’t built to play from behind. I think the Tar Heels can jump ahead early and ride that lead to a somewhat surprisingly comfortable victory.

Line: North Carolina -3

Prediction: North Carolina 35, Virginia Tech 24

3. Tennessee at Georgia, 3:30 pm (CBS)

At eight straight games, Tennessee is riding one of the nation’s longest active winning streaks. That’s a weird sentence to be saying considering it’s a year that begins with the number 2. But it’s true. Jeremy Pruitt has the Volunteer program as stable as it has been in quite some time. But is Tennessee really ready to compete with the SEC East measuring stick that is Georgia? We’ll learn this weekend.

Georgia looked really solid in a decisive win over Auburn last weekend. Ignoring the skill position play (including QB), I really think Georgia is comparable with the top tier of teams in the nation when it comes to the trenches. It’s a pair of lines loaded with elite talent, and elite talent that plays like elite talent, no less. It will be interesting to see how the Bulldog QB situation plays out when and if JT Daniels gets a formal green light to start. Stetson Bennett isn’t turning the ball over, but he’s also not looking like a QB that can be relied upon to make big plans in big games. Even though Tennessee is a much improved program, I don’t think the Vols are good enough to classify this matchup as a truly “big game,” so we won’t necessarily learn much about him this week. But with Alabama waiting next week, that’s a question that will be answered soon. It will be interesting to see how Kirby Smart treats this week’s game.

I think Georgia getting 12 points is far too much, especially with the Crimson Tide looming. This screams trap game to me. Not “Georgia could get upset” trap game, but definitely “this seems like a one-touchdown type game” to me. So give me a Georgia win, but a Tennessee cover in this one.

Line: Georgia -12

Prediction: Georgia 24, Tennessee 17

2. Texas vs. Oklahoma in Dallas, noon (FOX) — bonus: also serving as my upset watch for the week

It seems blasphemous that Texas and Oklahoma are playing and it’s not the biggest game of the week in my viewers guide. But honestly, it feels as if I might be giving this game too much credit based on how these two schools have started this fall.

Still, Texas-OU is one of my favorite events to cover every fall, and this year’s game should be a biggie once again — even if it’s for different reasons than it usually is. This is basically an elimination game for contention into the Big 12 Championship Game. Yes, just three games into the season, I really don’t see much of a path for the loser of this game to make the conference’s title game. That would be especially damning for Oklahoma (0-2 in conference play so far this year), given that the Sooners have not only played in every Big 12 title game since the conference rebooted it five years ago, they’ve won every single one of them. But losing to Texas and falling to 0-3 in conference play makes it damn near impossible for the Sooners to finish in the top 2 of the conference, especially since Texas and Iowa State would have head-to-head tiebreakers over them and with games against Oklahoma State still on the calendar. Things look a little less dire record-wise for Texas (1-1 in conference play), but dropping to 1-2 for them would be pretty no bueno, too.

As for the game itself, it should be close (the last six editions of this rivalry played at the State Fair of Texas have all been decided by a touchdown or less). Despite Oklahoma’s record and the fact it’s entering this game unranked for the first time in 15 years, I still think Oklahoma is the better team — and Vegas seems to agree. But if there’s one thing that’s been a reliable constant when it comes to projecting success in this rivalry, it’s been betting on the experienced QB. Since 1990, QBs making their first Red River Showdown start when facing an opposing QB that has previously started a game in this rivalry are 3-13-1. Spencer Rattler is incredibly talented, but I’ll take my chances betting on a team led by Sam Ehlinger, who is making his fourth Red River Showdown start (fifth if you count the time Texas and Oklahoma battled in the Big 12 title game).

For more predictions/breakdowns for Saturday’s game, check out the predictions from me and my colleagues over at the Dallas Morning News.

Scott Bell @ScottBellDMN

Three of us are geniuses and proof that the media knows everything about sports. Three of us are complete idiots and proof that the media knows nothing about sports.

dallasnews.comRed River Showdown predictions: Staffers split on outcome of annual battle between Texas and OklahomaDallas Morning News columnists, writers and editors who had a hand in this week’s Red River Showdown coverage have given their predictions for Saturday’s...

Line: Oklahoma -2.5

Prediction: Texas 41, Oklahoma 38

1. Miami at Clemson, 7:30 pm (abc)

Not a whole lot of debate as to what this weekend’s Main Event is. And we get it in primetime. College football is healthier when Miami is good, and while there’s still some climbing to do before the Hurricanes can legitimately consider themselves “back,” it’s hard to dispute that they’re heading in the right direction. But if it’s going to take an ACC title to solidify the Hurricanes’ return to national prominence, they have a Clemson-sized problem standing in their way.

Clemson is 40-2 in its last 42 ACC games. Its lone two losses during that span were defeats at the hands of unranked foes in 2016 (Pitt) and 2017 (Syracuse). In other words, Clemson hasn’t lost a “big” conference game in ages. Miami isn’t going to catch Dabo and the boys off guard this weekend.

Clemson has looked good so far this season, but certainly not invincible. The Tigers' two conference games so far this season have been a 37-13 win over Wake Forest and a 41-23 victory over Virginia. No disrespect to Sam Hartman and Brennan Armstrong, who are both actually capable QBs themselves, but if they can move the ball around against Clemson’s vaunted defense, I like D’Eriq King’s chances of being able to do so himself.

Ultimately, I just don’t expect Miami to be able to keep this close for 60 minutes. But it will be one of the rare Clemson games where you’ll get to see its starters play well into the fourth quarter. Even though Trevor Lawrence is the face of the team, I expect this to be the Travis Etienne show on Saturday night. He’s at his best when he’s playing elite teams because he’s actually getting enough volume to really break some big plays. I was surprised when he came back to play this fall, but it’s been great because it’s clear Clemson is trying to give him more opportunities to make plays in the passing game, too. In close to 40 career games in his first year in college, Etienne had never topped 100 yards receiving prior to this season. In fact, he had only topped 50 yards twice. But through three games this year, he’s averaging more than 50 yards per game, including a five-catch, 114-yard showing in his last game against Virginia.

I expect this to be a fairly entertaining first half and for Miami to keep it close, teasing viewers that it could be an upset in the making if a few bounces go its way late in the game. But Clemson pours it on late and pulls away, covering a pretty massive line of 15.5 given the fact that it’s playing against a fellow top-10 team.

Line: Clemson -15.5

Prediction: Clemson 41, Miami 24