Your Week 3 college football viewing guide: The five best games to watch this weekend, plus predictions, upset pick of the week and more

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Sep 19, 2020

Before we get to this week’s college football viewing guide, a few things to share.

First and foremost, on the heels of Wednesday’s big announcement that Michigan football will return on Oct. 24, I decided to celebrate by rolling out my first (and maybe last?) special offer for the newsletter. I’m offering 25% off premium subscriptions for the next two days. If you’ve been on the fence about giving it a try, now’s the time to do it. These weekly viewing guides will continue to be free, but other newsletter staples (podcast, mailbags, takeaways and other ideas I have brewing once Michigan games begin) will all be behind the premium paywall.

To take advantage of this special offer, click below:

Get 25% off for 1 year

I also wanted to share a few recent pieces of content I put out, in case you missed them the first time around. As well as pass along the podcast of my most recent radio appearance on WTKA.

I started the week out on Monday with a 28-minute appearance with Sam Webb and Ira Weintraub on The Michigan Insider. There are elements that are a little outdated now that the return has officially been announced, but a good chunk of our chat was about how the tea leaves were indicating that a return really did seem to be in the cards this time, as well as some discussion over the moral dilemmas it creates.

From a newsletter standpoint, I had my Week 2 college football takeaways combined with some mailbag Q&A that came out on Sunday. You can view that HERE (premium).

The following day, I rolled out my latest podcast. This week’s guest was The Wolverine’s recruiting analyst EJ Holland. You can listen to that 40-minute conversation HERE (premium).

And finally, I announced on Twitter last night that I’m going to take a crack at launching a YouTube channel. The plan is to host some fun Michigan football-related videos there once the season starts up. You can subscribe to that channel HERE.

With that out of the way, let’s look ahead to the upcoming weekend of college football. Or what’s left of it, at least.

Week 3 viewing guide

Five Games to Watch

I was a couple seconds away from hitting “send” on this when word started traveling that Baylor-Houston was postponed. That’s a bummer. That matchup was originally No. 2 on this list and should have been a really fun game to watch. Instead, it’s another reminder of the challenges ahead when it comes to actually pulling this season off. Getting the Big Ten to agree to give it a shot was part of the battle, but actually executing things and avoiding spread of the coronavirus is another thing. Just ask North Carolina, BYU, Army, Florida Atlantic, Georgia South, Arkansas State and a bunch of other schools that’ll be sitting on the couch watching football this week instead of playing it.

Still, there are some good matchups that are still slotted to actually happen. So here are my (amended) five games to watch.

5. Wake Forest at NC State (8:00, ACC Network)

I’ve declared my love for both Wake Forest’s style of play and for Dave Doeren’s coaching acument in past newsletters. Couple those two things with the fact that this is the most even game on this week’s slate, and this is a pretty no-brainer inclusion on this week’s viewing guide. Wake Forest comes in with an 0-1 record, but any team in America that would have had to open against Clemson would be in the same boat. Wake’s usually explosive offense wasn’t able to do much against the Tigers last week (to the point that they ended up sitting QB Sam Hartman toward the end of the game because they felt like playing him was a fool’s errand and might do more long-term damage than help in the moment), but I was quite impressed that Wake kept that game total to 50 total points. The offense is still Demon Deacons Lite without Jamie Newman under center and Sage Surratt catching passes, but I still really like Hartman when he’s not up against historically great defenses, and it looks like Taylor Morin has emerged as a dangerous receiving threat next to Donovan Greene, whose upside I’ve sung his praises of in the past.

NC State is at home in this game, which serves as the Wolfpack’s first game of the season. But who knows what home-field advantage really looks like in 2020. Vegas has NC State as the slightest of favorites in this game, but I actually really feel good about Wake Forest’s chances of not starting the season in an 0-2 hole. If Notre Dame struggles, I think either of these teams could be dark-horse candidates to compete for the No. 2 spot in the conference and for the right to get curb-stomped by Clemson in the ACC title game.

Line: NC State -1

Prediction: Wake Forest 31, NC State 21

4. SMU at North Texas (6:00, CBSSN)

I was really looking forward to seeing SMU vs. TCU last week in the battle for the Iron Skillet, but COVID issues prevented that Dallas Metroplex cross-town rivalry from happening. This week, SMU gets to take on the next best thing when it comes to a local rivalry when it heads 30 miles northwest to take on North Texas, another Metroplex FBS program located in Denton, TX.

These two teams have had some of college football’s most entertaining offenses to watch in recent years. But the two teams seem on different trajectories, with SMU being on the rise and UNT heading the opposite direction. In 2018, UNT had one of the best offenses in America, averaging north of 35 points per game under the leadership of offensive coordinator Graham Harrell.

In 2019. that scoring average dropped off by almost a touchdown per game as Harrell headed to LA to run USC’s offense. The Mean Green still averaged a respectable 30.6 points per game, but instead of being among the nation's best, that put them around the 50th best among ~130 FBS schools.

While this was going on, SMU as making a positive leap. The Mustangs were just north of 30 ppg in 2018. But last fall, they increased that by more than 10 points per game, ending up with a per-game average of 41.8 — its best mark in school history and just 0.3 points shy of offensive juggernaut Oklahoma for area supremacy.

That puts SMU at a crossroads in 2020. Will they experience a similar drop off this year that UNT did last year? SMU had to deal with its offensive coordinator (Rhett Lashlee) leaving for greener pastures (Miami (FL) this offseason, too. The sample size is small, but the Mustangs didn’t exactly set the college football world ablaze in its season opening game at Texas State, walking away with just a 31-24 victory. But they still have a really dangerous offense on paper — the combination of QB Shane Buechele, WRs Reggie Roberson and Danny Gray and TE Kylen Granson gives them one of the nation’s most talented starting stables of aerial weapons.

UNT has played once so far this season, putting up 57 points in a convincing win over Houston Baptist in Week 1. That doesn’t sound very impressive given the opponent, but it looked like a little more of a big deal last weekend when Houston Baptist took Texas Tech to the limit, ultimately falling to the Red Raiders in Lubbock, 35-33.

With all that said, I still don’t expect Saturday’s game to be particularly close. SMU is a two touchdown favorite and I think the Mustangs actually end up winning by more than that. But it makes my cut because of the curiosity factor, the rivalry factor and because there’s likely to be a lot of offense. After a handful of offensive dud games last Saturday, I think we’ve all earned this one.

Line: SMU -14

Prediction: SMU 45, UNT 27

3. Tulsa at Oklahoma State (noon, ESPN)

This game was originally scheduled to take place last week, but got delayed a week because of some COVID concerns. While it will be cool to see a couple schools from the Sooner state duke it out, I’m not putting this in my top 5 games list under the guise that this will be even remotely competitive. I’m just excited to see Oklahoma State’s offense get unleashed and to see for myself in the Cowboys can be a legitimate contender to the Big 12 throne that rival Oklahoma has had a stanglehold over in the conference championship game era.

Both Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace could (/should?) have gone pro after last season, but both returned to Stillwater to see if they could geet Oklahoma State over the hump and into the CFP discussion. Hubbard is probably the best running back in America. When healthy, Wallace has to be in the conversation for best WR in the nation, too — he was a Biletnikoff finalist two seasons ago and was on pace to repeat that feat last year before suffering a season-ending injury. I’m very interested in seeing them take the field on Saturday to see how dangerous this offense can be, and whether QB Spencer Sanders has made strides in his decision-making process. He has all the talent, but certainly showed his inexperience as a freshman starter last season. If he grows up and cuts back on self-inflicted mistakes — watch out. I really think Oklahoma State could stake a legitimate claim at the CFP.

Line: Oklahoma State -23.5

Prediction: Oklahoma State 52, Tulsa 24

2. UCF at Georgia Tech (3:30, ABC)

Georgia Tech picked up one of the most surprising wins of the week last week with a victory over Florida State. And while most people glancing at that box score may just shrug and consider it more of a Florida State loss than a Georgia Tech win, there was a lot to be impressed with when it comes to the Yellow Jackets’ performance against the Seminoles. That conversation has to start with the flashes of greatness fans got to see of freshman QB Jeff Sims — a player who, quite frankly, Georgia Tech doesn’t deserve when you look at it from a raw talent standpoint. But I’m sure they’ll gladly take him.

Sims was a comfortable four star on the 247Sports Composite rankings. The one-time Florida State commit’s offer list included cameos from elite programs like Georgia and LSU, as well as offers from other very strong programs like Penn State and Louisville. Yet he ultimately landed at Georgia Tech, largely because of the opportunity to made an impact right away. And he did just that in his season opener. Even though beating Florida State doesn’t mean what beating Florida State used to mean, it’s still an incredibly impressive way to start one’s career — and a sign that Georgia Tech might actually have some more aesthtically pleasing offense in its future.

With all that said, a home battle against UCF is a tougher task than a road game in Talahasee these days (ever expect to read that?) and the Golden Knights are a touchdown favorite for a reason on Saturday. And while I think this is a good time on the schedule to run into UCF and its an advantage for Georgia Tech, who already has in-game experience, to get to host UCF for UCF’s opener, the skill talent difference between the two schools is ultimately going to be too much for Georgia Tech to get past. But I definitely expect this to be close, and for Georgia Tech to beat a great bet if you’re getting the points.

Line: UCF -7.5

Prediction: UCF 34, Georgia Tech 31

1. Miami at Louisville (7:30, ABC)

It has taken three weeks, but we’re finally getting our first ranked team vs. ranked team matchup of the season. And it’s a conference battle, no less. I’m very excited to see No. 17 Miami take on No. 18 Louisville, and this is a pretty clear choice for top game of the weekend.

The greatness of D’Eriq King isn’t exactly a closely guarded secret at this point, and even though his opening week passing numbers (16-of-24, 144 yards, 1 TD) didn’t exactly put him at the top of the Heisman conversation, he showed he’s one of college football’s truest dual threats by racking up 80+ additional yards on the ground and adding another touchdown there.

But it’s the other team in this Saturday night battle that boasts the more explosive offense, and that’s thanks to Louisville having the second-most loaded collection of offensive skill talent in the ACC, trailing just Clemson. Micale Cunningham is criminally underrated from a national standpoint. He was responsible for 350+ yards and 4 TDS throw the air and on the ground in Louisville’s opener against Western Kentucky. The Cardinal offense is one of the most balanced in the country. Javian Hawkins was a 1,500-yard rusher as a freshman last season. But if teams zero in on him, that opens up opportunities in the passing game for Tutu Atwell (1,200+ yards last season), Dez Fitzpatrick (a familiar name for most Michigan fans) and the new addition of JuCo transfer Braden Smith, who topped 100 yards receiving in his debut against Western Kentucky.

The arrow is pointing up for both of these teams, and I’ve already lauded Rhett Lashlee’s coaching prowess earlier in here. I think he’ll continue to have Miami’s offense trending in the right direction and getting better at getting the type of production a program like that should get based on all the talent they bring into their system. But I like Louisville to make a primetime statement on Saturday night and pick up what could arguably be the biggest win of the Scott Satterfield era in Louisville so far.

Line: Louisville -2.5

Prediction: Louisville 35, Miami (FL) 24

Upset watch: Appalachian State (-5) at Marshall (3:30, CBS)

I set a high bar back in last week’s viewing guide, nailing double-digit underdog Arkansas State as an outright winner over Kansas State (figured I’d bring that back up in case you missed the first 10 times I’ve bragged about that over the past few days). I’m not as enamored by a potential upset pick on this week’s slate — especially not at the double-digit level. But put me down for the Appalachian State-Marshall game, which should end up being the best G5 vs. G5 matchup of the week (and would have made my top 5 games list of the week if I didn’t already know I was putting it in this slot instead.

I think the Mountaineers are a really good team this year. Voters seem to agree, too. They have their second highest ranking in the history of their program, and a win over Marshall could be enough to vault them into that best-ever spot, depending on how some games shake out over this weekend. But Marshall is no slouch, either, and I see this one being a dogfight. In a game where two teams will be exchanging haymakers left and right, all it takes is making sure you get that last punch in, and you can walk away with an impressive upset. I like the chances of Marshall doing that on Saturday.

And hey, Appalachian State has been known to be involved in early season upsets. I think it’s about time the Mountaineers experience the other side of the coin.

Too soon? Yeah. Probably still too soon.