Your Week 5 college football viewing guide: The five best games to watch this weekend, plus predictions, upset pick of the week and more
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You know the drill at this point. Each week, I choose the five best games to plan a Saturday full of college football around.
Before we get to this week’s guide, here’s a list of recent newsletters, podcasts and other pieces of content I’ve put out, in case you’ve missed it. I’ve separated them by premium and free. If you’re currently not a premium member, I’d highly suggest looking into it. Once we hit the Michigan portion of the college football schedule, basically anything that has to do with Michigan will be considered premium content.
Recent podcasts
Premium: Interview with former U-M star OL Grant Newsome | Interview with Michigan recruiting analyst EJ Holland
Free: Interview with Michigan alum/former Saturday Night Live cast member Mike O’Brien
Recent articles
Premium: The 5 most important players on Michigan’s roster heading into 2020 | Michigan roundtable — previewing the 2020 season with nearly 20 U-M football experts | Most recent mailbag
Free: Week 4 college football viewing guide/predictions | Week 3 college football viewing guide/predictions | Week 2 college football viewing guide/predictions
Misc
Recent appearances on WTKA to talk U-M football: 9/28 | 9/21 | 9/14
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Week 5 viewing guide
Five Games to Watch
Like last week, it’s actually tough to whittle this down to just five games, which I suppose is a good problem to have. But I feel confident with this slate of five as my finished product. Like last week, this collection of games touches all the major time slots and the five big TV networks airing games this weekend.
5. TCU at Texas, noon (FOX)
This might not look like the most exciting game on paper. But if we’re weighing recent history into things, this has a sneaky-good chance of stealing the show this weekend. The fact that the two teams played in a pair of tightly contested games last week also works in their favor (TCU lost its season opener to Iowa State, 37-34, while Texas won an overtime thriller over Texas Tech, 63-56[!]).
I don’t think anyone would argue against the fact that Texas is pretty overwhelmingly the better team in this matchup. And the fact that it’s in Austin almost assuredly works in the Longhorns’ favor, too. But if you know anything about Gary Patterson and how he approaches this rivalry, you should be tripping all over yourself taking the points once you learn his Horned Frogs are double-digit underdogs in this one.
I liken how TCU prepares for these games to how Mark Dantonio treated the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry. TCU will never lose this game because the other side wanted it more. Take a look and how the last eight matchups in this series have played out — there’s a whole lot more purple in this table than burnt orange.
This rivalry has been pretty close in terms of who has supposed to win over the eight-year span I’m highlighting right now (I’m choosing eight years because that’s how long TCU has been in the Big 12 and this has gone back to being an annual staple). Seven of the eight games have been one-possession games in terms of the spread. But all that says to me is that TCU continues to overachieve — not only have the Horned Frogs won six of the eight games during this span, but they’ve won all but one of them by double digits.
Here’s who has been favored each game and by how much, with the eventual result in parentheses:
2019: Texas -1 (lost)
2018: TCU -2.5 (lost)
2017: TCU -7.5 (won)
2016: Texas -3 (lost)
2015: TCU -15 (won)
2014: TCU -6 (won)
2013: TCU -3 (lost)
2012: Texas -7 (lost)
I think Texas gets it done, but I think Patterson and Co. outperform expectations in this one — per usual — and keep this one close.
Line: Texas -13
Prediction: Texas 35, TCU 31
4. Texas A&M at Alabama, 3:30 pm (CBS)
A battle between two top-15 teams would typically rank higher for a slate on here. But I’m not a believer in Texas A&M. I got skewered pretty bad on the internet when I posted by Texas A&M season preview for the Dallas Morning News and projected a 4-6 record for the Aggies. Though most of those people are conspicuously more quiet this week after A&M narrowly escaped its home opener against Vanderbilt with a victory last week.
But an intradivision SEC West battle is going to be watchable even if Alabama is a heavy favorite — especially when only three of the five major conferences are in action this weekend. I’d just advise watching out of interest in seeing what Alabama looks like this year rather than hoping for a nailbiter of a game. Michigan fans might not really need to take a deep dive into this game to see how dangerous Alabama can look this year, because most of the Crimson Tide’s top weapons this year are the ones who turned a tight bowl game into a clear Alabama win in last year’s Citrus Bowl against Michigan — Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Mac Jones.
No matter what your inspiration is to watch this game, though, I fully expect Alabama to post one of the most impressive showings of the young college football season. The line is 18 and I could see Alabama coming close to doubling that margin of victory.
Line: Alabama -18
Prediction: Alabama 42, Texas A&M 10
3. Oklahoma at Iowa State, 7:30 (abc)
Let’s call this one the battle between two Big 12 teams that didn’t expect to enter October with blemishes already on their record. A matchup between two teams who would basically be guaranteed to have a disappointing season no matter how the final 66% of the years plays out if they lose again on Saturday.
The safe money is on Oklahoma to bounce back, of course. The Sooners are the best team in the Big 12, and have been for multiple years now. They have won two straight over Matt Campbell and the Iowa State Cyclones. And if you want to extend that timeline back a few additional decades, we’re looking at Oklahoma having won 20 of the last 21 and 47 of the last 50.
If that’s not enough, the Sooners haven’t lost back-to-back regular season games since before the Y2K scare. Oklahoma starting QB Spencer Rattler was -1 years old at the time.
But this year’s Oklahoma team might be different. And not the good kind of different. Charleston Rambo, Theo Wease and promising freshman weapon Marvin Mims aren’t chopped liver, but this is the first time in the Lincoln Riley era that Oklahoma hasn’t had a bonafide star target (or targets) in the passing game. That’s not to say Rambo, Wease, Mims (or Jadon Haselwood once he returns to injury) can’t become the next Hollywood Brown, CeeDee Lamb or Mark Andrews, but it is safe to say they’re not current versions of those now-NFL stars. That extends to the QB spot, too. Rattler might be the best redshirt freshman QB in the country. But when you’re following a trio of QBs from the last three seasons that consist of two Heisman Trophy winners and three NFL draft picks (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts), then you’re always going to be a step down until you can prove otherwise — fair or not.
All of this is a product of absurdly high expectations the Sooners have created for themselves by having the program experience so much success in the Lincoln Riley era. And a failure to meet this absurdly high expectations doesn’t necessarily equate to an inability to beat Iowa State. These two things can be and likely are mutually exclusive. But just don’t think this will be like the Oklahoma teams of the past who have all been able to bounce back from a disappointing loss without blinking the following week. It’s a tough draw to have to travel to Ames to play in a night game as an encore. As I’ve already advocated in this space multiple times (1 | 2 | 3), I really think Iowa State is a good, balanced team. And it’s going to take a strong performance to beat the Cyclones in a given week. Do I think Oklahoma probably puts together that performance and escapes Ames with a win? Yes. But I think it could end up being a great game.
The aggregate score in the three head-to-head matchups between Matt Campbell and Lincoln Riley since they took over their respective programs is 110-106. I don’t expect that +/- to grow into double digits after Saturday’s game.
Line: Oklahoma -8
Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Iowa State 31
2. Memphis at SMU, 3:30 pm (ESPN2)
This was one of the most entertaining G5 games of the 2019 season. And while the bar is high for the sequel to be as good as the original, it’s certainly possible. Both teams are unbeaten (though Memphis has played an abbreviated schedule because of some COVID spread within the team) and along with UCF, Cincinnati and BYU, look like the best bets to be the cream of the crop among G5/independent programs this fall.
If you had 250 guesses at who would be leading the nation in rushing yardage after the first month of the season, I’d feel very confident that you wouldn’t be able to pull SMU’s Ulysses Bentley IV out of your hat. That ground weapon (along with an equally dangerous TJ McDaniel in the Mustang backfield) coupled with a passing attack led by Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele and a WR tandem of Reggie Roberson, Danny Gray and Rashee Rice gives SMU one of the best offenses in America.
But in contention with SMU for that claim? Memphis. The Tigers haven’t gotten the chance to show it much this year and there’s a little uncertainty about how dynamic that offense can be without star RB Kenneth Gainwell, who has opted out for this season, but a potent Memphis offense has been one of the safest bets in recent years. Brady White is back for one more year at QB, as is his go-to target in the passing game (Damonte Coxie). Gainwell is gone, but in a limited window, Rodrigues Clark showed himself to be a pretty good bet to step in and be similarly productive against Arkansas State.
As for my pick? I give a slight edge to SMU here. Memphis being out of commission for a couple weeks could come into play here from a sharpness and maybe even a conditioning standpoint. If you watch games for defense, you’ll probably want to pass on watching this one. But if you want to see two of the most dynamic offenses in America go head-to-head in what I expect to be a very close game, this should be your go-to choice out of the afternoon games — and yes, that’s including A&M vs. Alabama.
Line: Memphis -2
Prediction: SMU 41, Memphis 38
1. Auburn at Georgia, 7:30 pm (ESPN) — bonus: also serving as my upset watch for the week
I had really high hopes for Georgia heading into last week, and the Bulldogs really left a lot to be desired. A 37-10 win over Arkansas looks about what most expected to see on paper, but that game was a complete dumpster fire in the first half. The Razorbacks actually led, 7-5, at halftime of that one, and Georgia just poured in on in the second half to make the score look respectable at the end (and it worked, by the way — Georgia still ended up No. 4 in the nation in this week’s AP poll, which is one of the reasons I’m so passionate about doing a Resume over Reputation weekly poll this fall.
The biggest reason for Georgia’s brutal start was quarterback play. D’Wan Mathis — one of the few college football players in America who can boast the fact that he pissed off not only Michigan State’s fanbase, but also Ohio State’s fanbase by separately decommitting to both of those programs during his recruitment — got the start in this one thanks to JT Daniels not being cleared. And it … did not go well. At all. Mathis had four yards rushing on 10 attempts, completed less than half of his passing attempts (8-of-17) and threw one interception compared to zero touchdowns. Not exactly what fans were expecting to see for their first look at the new Todd Monken offense.
Next-man-up Stetson Bennett (who has one of the most SEC names in the history of the SEC) did a better job once he got his chance to replace Mathis, but it’s clear that Georgia’s ceiling this year will be decided by just how much Daniels (a USC transfer who looked great for the Trojans as a freshman starter a few years back) can do upon his return.
Luckily for Georgia fans, it looks like that return will happen this weekend. Fortunate timing, given that Auburn — a fellow top-10 team — is coming to town. I tabbed Auburn as the victim in my upset pick of the week last week, a move that resulted in my first missed prediction in that feature so far this fall. It was a tight game for the first three quarters (Auburn carried just a two-point lead into the fourth), but the Tigers pulled away down the stretch and got an impressive win over a Kentucky team that I don’t think gets its due respect much of the time. Seth Williams looks like one of the best receivers in the nation this fall, and new Auburn offensive coordinator seems intent on getting him targets in the red zone, which should be music to the ears of Auburn fans who have been rightfully frustrated over how some of Auburn’s best players not being put in position to make the impact they have the ability to make.
So as a mea culpa to Auburn fans for picking them on the wrong side of an upset pick of the week last week, I’ll go ahead and choose their game again this week — but do so in favor of the Tigers. Georgia is the more talented team and it’s risky to pick against the Bulldogs at home, but it’s hard (and unfair) to expect someone like Daniels to step in and have no rust whatsoever after missing more than 12 months of game action.
Line: Georgia -7.5
Prediction: Auburn 24, Georgia 23
Record in previous upset picks (2-1 against the spread, 2-1 straight): Kentucky (+7) over Auburn | Auburn won ATS and outright | Marshall (+5) over Appalachian State [Marshall won outright] | Arkansas State (+10.5) over Kansas State [ Arkansas State won outright]
That’s all I have heading into this weekend. Keep your eyes out for more content this weekend and beyond, including a new mailbag.
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