Your Week 7 college football viewing guide: The five best games to watch this weekend, plus predictions, upset pick of the week and more
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This week’s viewing guide is going to be a little abbreviated relative to how long the last few have ended up. I figured you might want some relief on your eyes if you dug into my 9,500-plus word deep dive into all of Michigan’s decommitments from Michigan’s last five recruiting classes that went up early Friday night. If you haven’t read that, I’d suggest checking it out. If you’d like to but you’re not a premium subscriber, I’d suggest checking out all of the subscription offers below:
Week 7 viewing guide
Five Games to Watch
This is the last (planned) abbreviated slate of the fall. COVID could change things, but right now this is by far the fewest games on a weekend that we’ll see until we reach mid-December. It’s the final week of play before the Big Ten has seven different games per week, and the Pac-12 will be joining a few short weeks after that — not to mention some of the Group of 5 programs that initially weren’t going to play this fall.
There are other factors making this week’s slate thinner than normal, too. There are more than a handful of games that are postponed. LSU-Florida is the biggie, but they’re joined by Oklahoma State-Baylor, Vanderbilt-Missouri, Cincinnati-Tulsa, Southern Miss-UTEP and Florida International-Charlotte on the shelf as well. When you combine that with the fact that this was a pre-planned idle week for more than half of the Big 12 already, and it’s pretty slim pickings. The conference’s lone game this week is Kansas vs. West Virginia. And look, I love college football. But even I don’t love it enought o get excited for that one.
Here are my five games to watch this week, along with my predictions.
5. Kentucky at Tennessee, noon (SEC Network)
The noon slate of games has nine different matchups to choose from. It’s not necessarily light on strong teams (Clemson is in action, as are fun teams to watch like Miami (FL)), but it’s fairly light on strong matchups. A pair of SEC battles stand out as the best options to me: Auburn-South Carolina and Kentucky-Tennessee. While the former might look like the more appealing matchup on paper, I’m giving the latter the nod to make my list because of the contrast it presents to the rest of the slate. The SEC has looked a lot like the Big 12 so far this fall. Games are hitting triple-digit totals, defensive coordinators/assistants are getting fired and a punt is about as rare of a sighting at a game as a properly masked fan in attendance is. That’s not necessarily the case across the entire conference, though, and I’m very intrigued to see this head-to-head battle between two of the very few SEC teams that are still built around stout defenses.
This over/under opened in the low 50s and has been bet down all the way to the mid 40s. The cynic in me says that might have something to with neither teams’ offenses being great, but I do think the bulk of that movement comes from sharps’ respect for these two defenses — arguably the conference’s best two defenses that don’t wear a massive G on their helmet.
I think Tennessee walks away with the win, but I think it’s by less than a score, so I’ll gladly take Kentucky and the points in this one.
Line: Tennesee -7
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Kentucky 21
4. Louisville at Notre Dame, 2:30 pm (NBC)
I’ve mentioned this before in past newsletters, but the Fighting Irish need to survive October to get the opportunity to play in some really high-profile games in November. That November schedule is currently bookended by a home game against Clemson to start the month and a road game against North Carolina to close out the month. Those are currently the No. 1 and No. 5 teams in America. Notre Dame falls in between those two, coming in at No. 4 in the most recent AP poll.
This is by far the largest line of the five games I’m spotlighting this weekend and I think it’s completely reasonable to expect the host Irish to collect another relatively no-worry victory on their path to November, but Louisville is dangerous — at least on offense — and the sense of urgency is likely quite high on the heels of an 0-3 start in conference play. I’m not insane enough to predict an outright win here by Louisville, but I am happy to take the points in this one without hesitation. Two-and-a-half touchdowns is a lot for any team to win by, especially when they’re facing a three-headed-monster on offense in the former of Micale Cunningham, Javian Hawkins and Tutu Atwell. I don’t usually talk over/unders in this space, but don’t be afraid to jump all over the over if you get the chance, either. I see this going north of 60 with somewhat relative ease.
Line: Notre Dame -16.5
Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Louisville 35
3. UCF at Memphis, 3:30 pm (abc)
Ask any fan of G5 football, and there’s a high probability that they had this one circle as one of the G5s most anticipated games of the season. That excitement might be someone dimmed with both schools entering this week’s game on the heels of a loss — Memphis fell to SMU in the final seconds of one of the most entertaining games of the year so far, and UCF was stunned by Tulsa on that same day, 34-26 … and at home, no less. Both teams had last weekend off as a chance to lick its wounds and get players healthy and on track.
It’s gotta be really hard for a team like Memphis, which has played in a grand total of one game since its Sept. 5 win over Arkansas State because of COVID complications. Granted, many of those complications were self-inflicted, but it still has to be really hard to these kids to be going through this day in and day out. Because of this lack of rhythym and consistency and reps at game speed, I have to lean UCF on this one — even with the game being played in Memphis. Dillon Gabriel has the ability to make all of the throws, and UCF has been able to flex the depth of its WR weapons since Tre Nixon’s injury. Oklahoma transfer Jaylon Robinson is fitting quite nicely and Marlon Williams might be the most talented WR on the team (Nixon included). I expect this to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend and a great chance for two of the AAC’s flagship programs to get more national exposure in a highly coveted timeslot on abc.
Line: UCF -2.5
Prediction: UCF 48, Memphis 38
2. Texas A&M at Mississippi State, 4 pm (ESPN)
I’m not only including this game on this week’s list, I’m putting it near the top. And I think a sense of guilt is the driving force behind it. I haven’t been shy about the fact that I thought Texas A&M could end up having a really poor season this fall. It was to the point that I didn’t even include them in last week’s slate of games because I really didn’t even think the game would be competitive. But the Aggies weren’t only competitive, they were victorious — picking up arguably the biggest win of the Jimbo Fisher era. Kellen Mond looked like the real deal, and Isaiah Spiller finally gave the Aggies a weapon not named Ainias Smith that opposing defenses need to keep tabs of.
The shine off Mississippi State’s season-opening win against LSU is completely gone. That’s a combination of how poorly the Bulldogs have looked since the victory and how equally poorly LSU has continued to play this season (losing to Missouri?). Knocking off the defending national champs is a great and all. But it’s not exactly brag-worthy if half the teams on LSU’s schedule this season will be able to boast about the same feat.
KJ Costello has gone from the sexy pick to be 2020’s Joe Burrow to someone that’s legitimately flirting with being benched. He has an astronomical 17% interceptable pass rate when facing pressure. The fact that the Bulldogs threw 70(!) passes last week and scored 0 points on offense is one of the weirdest, likely hardest to replicate feats of the 2020 season so far. A&M still has its warts — it took nearly the entire game for the Aggies to prevent Florida from scoring a touchdown on any given drive last week — but I expect Jimbo and Co. to build on last week’s success and walk out of Starkville with a semi-comfortable win.
Line: Texas A&M -5
Prediction: Texas A&M 35, Mississippi State 24
1. Georgia at Alabama, 8 pm (CBS) — bonus: also serving as my upset watch for the week
Were you expecting anything else? This could be the biggest game of the college football calendar this year — or at least until conference championship week. Yes, both teams can probably afford to lose this game and still be a heavy favorite to make the playoffs if it wins its remaining games, but it’s not often you get a No. 2 vs. No. 3 battle in primetime at this stage of the season. Add in all the Nick Saban COVID-19 drama and this has all the makings of an instant classic (for what it’s worth, I totally expect him to be coaching on the sidelines by Saturday night).
I’m most interested to see which team is able to dictate play to best fit its preferred style. Georgia has the best defense in America, and I’d be hard-pressed finding someone whose opinion I respect on college football disagree with that statement. Alabama’s defense has leaked more than normal in past seasons, but its offense looks absolutely unstoppable. No box score from this season tells such an elaborate story as the Alabama vs. Ole Miss box score from last week does. I’m still amazed that Alabama allowed Ole Miss to score 48 points. But try looking at these Crimson Tide offensive numbers without audibly mouthing “Wow” to yourself.
So Georgia’s defense is elite. Alabama’s offense is elite. These are both well-established. I think Saturday night’s game comes down to which side’s unit that has underperformed a bit this season will come up with more big plays when it counts. Georgia’s offense has all the potential. It has Todd Monken calling plays — one of the most respected coordinators in football at any level in recent years. George Pickens is one of the most talented WRs in the country, but his stats haven’t shown it this fall. Kearis Jackson has emerged as the team’s most prolific wideout so far in 2020. He’ll either continue to benefit from the attention Pickens draws from opposing defenses, or he’ll begin attracting some of that attention to himself and free up Pickens to make the plays that most expected him to be making at this point of the season. Like Pickens, Zamir White has had a bit of an underwhelming start to this season, too. He has scored four touchdowns on the ground in three games, but his yards per carry average is under 4. There are some uber talented, young, highly touted running backs waiting in the wings to step in and get their chance, so this could be Zamir’s last true chance to really show he deserves the keys to this running attack. The Georgia QB situation has been fascinating all season long. Jamie Newman was supposed to be the guy before he opted out. Then JT Daniels announced his transfer and was assumed to be “the guy” once Newman began his draft prep. Then Daniels wasn’t cleared so D’Wan Mathis got the start in the opener. Then Mathis didn’t even make it through that first game and the QB1 spot was handed over to a dude named Stetson Bennett IV — a name that’s not going to instill much confidence in anyone unless you’re looking for an insurance adjustor. Bennett has passed every test thrown his way so far this fall, including no-doubter wins over Auburn and Tennessee. And even the opener against Arkansas, which looked shaky at the time, looks more impressive by the week as the Razorbacks play everyone tough week in and week out. So I’m not sure who is going to break out, but there are a lot of candidates to do so. Especially against an Alabama defense that has gotten in the habit of allowing opponents to break out against them so far this fall.
The Tide allowed Ainias Smith to bring in 6 catches for 123 yards and 2 TDs, rushing for 29 more yards in their battle with Texas A&M a few weeks back. Last week against Ole Miss, it was Rebel QB Matt Corral that was the recepient of a video game statline: He threw for 365 yards and a pair of touchdowns and rushed for 40 more yards. And those passing numbers came while two separate Ole Miss running backs (Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy) both topped the century mark on the ground, too, combining for four separate TDs in the process.
This is one of the smallest lines I’ve seen involving Alabama at home during the Saban era. There’s a reason that’s the case. While my head tells me Alabama should be the pick (Georgia’s QB situation is still scary and the emotional lift Saban being on the sideline would give the Tide is a real thing), I just think Georgia’s freakshow defense ends up making a few major plays down the stretch, and the Bulldogs walk away with the upset victory, and a compelling argument to leapfrog Clemson as the nation’s top team.
Line: Alabama -4.5
Prediction: Georgia 31, Alabama 27
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