Your Week 8 college football viewing guide: Breaking down/predicting Michigan's season opener, as well as nine other games from around the country
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It’s time for another installment of my weekly college football viewing guides. But with Big Ten football finally back, these are going to look a little different from what you’ve become accustomed to seeing in this space each week. For the sake of keeping this as locally relevant to my readership, I’m going to have this focus on Big Ten football as much as possible. So I’ll break down/predict each Big Ten game and then tack on 2-3 additional games from around the nation that are worth trying to fit into your Saturday viewing plans, too. By doubling the number of games I’ll be tackling each week, I’m going to cut back on the depth of these breakdowns. But hey, you’ll be getting double the predictions. And if you happen to be taking these predictions and placing wagers with them as your guide, the last few weeks have been pretty lucrative for you. So you’re welcome.
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Now let’s tackle the games, starting with the one we’ve all been spending the last few weeks overanalyzing in our heads.
Week 8 Viewing Guide
Big Ten Game of the Week
Michigan at Minnesota, 7:30 (abc)
Somethings gotta give. Since 2006, Michigan is 1-20 on the road against ranked teams. It has only been a favorite, like it will be in Saturday’s game, in three of those games, but that’s still a brutal road record against top opponents. Against the spread, the Wolverines are 6-15 in those 21 games. On the other hand, Michigan hasn’t lost a road game in this rivalry in 43 years. Forty-three years! That’s 16 straight Michigan wins in Minneapolis. Entering this game, I really thought I’d be taking Minnesota. The Golden Gophers got all-world WR Rashod Bateman to return to play after opting out, while Michigan was on the opposite end of the luck sprectrum when it came to Nico Collins — and for this game in particularly, more importantly: Ambry Thomas. Those corresponding moves basically bolsters Minnesota’s passing game to its top overall strength heading into this season and made Michigan’s secondary its biggest question mark. Not a great matchup.
With that said, as we’ve gotten closer and closer to the actual kickoff, there are two things working firmly in Michigan’s favor: Reported “luck” with COVID-19 and the weather. Let’s dig a little deeper into each.
COVID-19
There’s a very odd, almost unprecedented difference in computer models/betting odds. Most computers seem to favor Minnesota by a couple of points. In Vegas, though, Michigan’s status as favorite continues to grow after the Wolverines opened as underdogs at most books last week. That almost assuredly means a big shift in “other” factors. And in 2020, “other” factors almost always means COVID-19. There are plenty of rumors going around about a somewhat significant COVID outbreak within the Minnesota program. PJ Fleck more or less acknowledged that on Monday, but refused to give any sort of number figure. Where those cases are hitting the Gophers the hardest remains to be seen, but there seems to be a lot of smoke that it could be hurting Minnesota on the offensive line. Michigan has been transparent (or about as transparent as college athletic departments have been willing to be this year) when it comes to reporting COVID cases, and it seems clear that this program is going to continue to emphasize discipline and respect when it comes to the virus. As odd as it sounds, that really could be a competitive advantage for this program over the course of the fall.
WEATHER
Earlier this month, Minnesota starting CB Benjamin St-Juste (a name that should sound familiar to Michigan fans), tweeted some trash about his former teammates, saying “bring them boys to TCF bank at night when its gets realllll cold.”
That’s great for narratives and trash talk and everything. And it really does sound intimidating. But does the data/logic behind of things really back this up and make it a legitimate threat? Let’s look at how both teams performed last season in different weather situations:
Minnesota:
Minnesota won every game it played last season when the tempature was 40 or warmer at kickoff. Its only losses came in November once things got colder. Its loss to Wisconsin in 33 degree weather meant no Big Ten Championship Game for PJ Fleck and Co.
Michigan:
Michigan didn’t quite play in as many games in the 30s (three total compared to five for Minnesota), but it went 5-1 in its six coldest games at the time of kickoff, with that lone loss coming against Ohio State. And no offense to Michigan on this one, but that loss seems a little more like an “opponent” thing than a “conditions” thing.
So where do we land for the opener? The current forecast for Saturday’s game: Snow. And in the 20s. Maybe this whole “having to watch games on TV” isn’t such a bad thing after all.
But looking at this from a practical standpoint, this has to be a good thing for Michigan, no? The biggest aspect of football that’s likely to be affected by snowy, cold conditions is passing. And that’s Minnesota’s biggest advantage. Gameplans will likely have to shift a bit more toward the trenches, and I like Michigan’s chances there in a vacuum, but especially now if Minnesota will have a patchwork offensive line. Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson going up after backup offensive linemen? Yes, please.
So here’s the part where I make my prediction. I’m a little on the superstitious side, so you’ll have to bear with me here. But over the next couple of weeks you’ll probably get the hang of things.
Line: Michigan -3
OFFICIAL PREDICTION: Minnesota 57, Michigan 3
(Unofficial prediction: Michigan 31, Minnesota 21)
Other Big Ten games
Illinois at Wisconsin (Fri), 8 pm (BTN)
Illinois played in a bowl game last season. I feel like that’s not talked about enough. The Fighting Lovie Smiths had a great middle of the 2019 season, putting together a four-game winning streak, all against conference foes, that was bookended by wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State. But it’s clear most don’t expect that success to be replicated this fall. This three-touchdown line is pretty massive, especially considering the fact that Wisconsin will be breaking in a new QB after starter Jack Coan suffered a major injury. The Badgers will be hungry for revenge, and it’s important for them to set the tone on the season in the Big Ten’s first game of the season with all eyes on them, but I’m not confident enough to lay 20.5 points on this one.
Line: Wisconsin -20.5
Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Illinois 14
Nebraska at Ohio State, noon (FOX)
The list of scenarios where I’d thoroughly enjoy watching Ohio State systematically destroy another college football team is really, really short. Saturday’s game between the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers will be one of those times. Nebraska fans and the program in general have been oh-so-insufferable during this offseason, and I’m going to savor every single sad Scott Frost sideline shot they show on Saturday. I’m curious to see the carry distribution between Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon and Master Teague. Will it be a carry share? Will one emerge as a lead back? Is Teague fully healthy? But largely I’ll just be watching this one for some good old fashioned Cornhusker schadenfreude. But hey, thanks for the inspiration for this video earlier this offseason, Scott.
Line: Ohio State -26
Prediction: Ohio State 52, Nebraska 21
Rutgers at Michigan State, noon (BTN)
Would Michigan State losing its season opener against Rutgers be hilarious? Absolutely. But it’s not likely. And honestly, it’s not even my preferred outcome if we’re looking at things from a macro perspective rather than a micro one. I don’t want a downtrodden Michigan State fanbase for next week’s Michigan-MSU week. I want one inflated with false confidence and some semblance of belief that they can take care of business against the Wolverines. I’m not opposed to kicking Spartan Nation while they’re down, but it’s just much more satisfying to do it when there’s some sort of pedestal or perch to be knocking them down from — even if it’s a self-built pedestal built on the success the program had against Rich Rod/Hoke-led teams from a decade-plus ago. As for the game itself, here’s the breakdown: Michigan State is bad. Rutgers sucks. Rock > scissors. Scissors > paper. Paper > rock. Bad > sucks.
Line: Michigan State -13.5
Prediction: Michigan State 31, Rutgers 7
Penn State at Indiana, 3:30 pm (FS1) — bonus: also serving as my upset watch for the week
I had a laugh when I conducted my preseason Michigan football roundtable and asked people what the biggest trap game on Michigan’s schedule was, and Indiana appeared 16 times and no other school appeared more than once. My conclusion with that: At some point a matchup like that stops being a “trap game” and is just a “tough game” instead. Indiana is good, and if it competed anywhere other than the Big Ten East, it would get a lot more respect than it currently gets. In fact, I think the Hoosiers would be legitimate contenders in the Big Ten West if they found themselves on that side of the division instead. All of this is to say I think Indiana is totally capable of winning a big game it’s not “supposed” to win, and Saturday’s opener against Penn State fits the bill to me. Entering the season, it looked like Micah Parsons and Journey Brown would be the engines that power the Penn State defense and offense, respectively. Penn State has had a little more time to deal with the fact that Parsons won’t be around, but no matter how good Noah Cain may be, the recent loss of Brown is going to be felt. Indiana’s three-headed monster of Michael Penix-Stevie Scott-Whop Philyor could sneakily be the second or third best in the whole conference. Let’s keep 2020 weird and see Indiana shake up the Big Ten East in the first week of the season.
Line: Penn State -6
Prediction: Indiana 31, Penn State 30
Iowa at Purdue, 3:30 (BTN)
No Jeff Brohm (not even in a remote capacity) and now, no Rondale Moore, either? No chance I take the Boilermakers here. I think Tyler Goodson is one of the best young RBs that nobody really talks about. That chatter might begin to pick up this season, and a strong opener againt Purdue is a good way for that to happen. He has scored a rushing touchdown in four straight games. Go ahead and pencil Saturday’s game in as No. 5.
Line: Iowa -4
Prediction: Iowa 31, Purdue 20
Maryland at Northwestern, 7:30 (BTN)
I missed college football so, so much. And especially Big Ten football. But yeah, you’d have to pay me a significant amount of money to get me to watch this game — especially with it kicking off the same time as Michigan-Minnesota. But from a betting standpoint, 11 points seems like a pretty wide margin of victory for a Northwestern team that scored more than 22 points exactly one time in conference play last season, and had scoring outputs of 10 points or less in more than half of its Big Ten contests last fall.
Line: Northwestern -11
Prediction: Northwestern 20, Maryland 17
Three non-Big Ten games worth watching
Oklahoma at TCU, noon (abc)
We’re not only getting the Big Ten back in action this week, but the Big 12 returns after a week where only two teams played. I’m interested in a number of the Big 12 games on this week’s slate, including Texas-Baylor, which just narrowly missed this list, but Oklahoma-TCU is getting my nod in the early slate because there are very few teams in the nation that simulteanously enamor me and perplex me at the level that Oklahoma can. The Sooners could (maybe even should?) be 0-3 in conference play after flirting with disaster in its last game, a four-OT thriller over rival Texas. I keep waiting for them to flip the switch and look like the CFP competitor most expected the Sooners to be entering this season, but we’re approaching the midway point of the season and that’s still nowhere to be seen. I look at this game as Lincoln Riley’s last real chance to make an impact and get this thing steered in the right direction if there’s anything salvagable this season. Giving Lincoln Riley two weeks to prepare sounds dangerous — but he’s up against Gary Patterson, who was afforded that same amount of time. Patterson is one of college football’s best tacticians (see every TCU game against Texas over the last 6-7 years) and he’s always bound to have a smart gameplan that’s really entertaining to watch from a tactical standpoint. I think Oklahoma wins, but the clash between these two coaches has me excited to see the how, and not just the what.
Line: Oklahoma -6.5
Prediction: Oklahoma 38, TCU 28
Iowa State at Oklahoma State, 3:30 pm (FOX)
If you only watched the opening week of Big 12 football and nothing else and teleported directly to this week, you’d think I was absolutely crazy if I told you this matchup between Iowa State and Oklahoma State would be for the right to become the Big 12’s outright leader. But that’s exactly what’s on the line, despite the fact that Iowa State lost its season-opening (by 17!) to Louisiana-Lafayette on Sept. 12, and Oklahoma State narrowly escaped an upset loss of its own, beating Tulsa, 16-7, in a game where it trailed in the fourth quarter. But both schools have righted their ships and look really solid. And now they’re facing off in a game where the winner looks in great shape to make their respective school’s first Big 12 Championship Game since it rebooted a half-decade ago. I’m very interested to see what Oklahoma State does with its QB situation, since it appears Spencer Sanders should be medically cleared to play. But the Cowboys have been unbeaten with freshman Shane Illingworth leading the team in Sanders’ absence, even if it always hasn’t been super pretty. The Breece Hall-Chuba Hubbard backfield battle should be a classic, and I expect Iowa State to steal this one on the road in a minor upset.
Line: Oklahoma State -3.5
Prediction: Iowa State 35, Oklahoma State 31
Cincinnati at SMU, 9 pm (ESPN2)
SMU and Cincinnati are the AAC’s only two ranked teams left standing, and they’re the conference’s only two unbeaten teams when talking about overall record. There’s a lot more season to play and it’s a dangerous conference to play in without a lot of true layups, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say this is essentially a play-in game to the AAC Championship Game. Cincinnati has the better defense, SMU has the better offense. The Mustangs didn’t look like a well-oiled machine in their first game following Reggie Roberson and TJ McDaniel’s season-ending injuries, but they still won — and maybe more importantly, they played. The Bearcats haven’t played for three weeks because of COVID-related issues, and could suffer the same fate that Memphis did when the Tigers came into Dallas to take on the Mustangs after an extended break a few weeks back. While it may not be the most aesthetically pleasing game of the week, it’s one of the most important, with the winner walking away as arguably the favorite to represent the Group of 5 in a New Year’s Six Bowl. My heart tells me to ride the Mustangs, who have pulled out a lot of close, entertaining wins so far this season, but this just feels like a game Cincinnati ends up winning thanks to its advantage in the trenches.
Line: SMU -2.5
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, SMU 21
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