Big Ten Power Rankings (Vol. 1): Ohio State is the team to beat heading into the fall; Michigan gets nod at No. 2 over Penn State

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Jul 22, 2020

One recurring staple I intend to have this fall in this newsletter space (you know, if that whole “college football” thing ends up happening), is a weekly power rankings feature. A weekly look at the Big Ten from top to bottom, 1-14, regardless of divisions.

The working plan is to have that be a free feature, too.

So I figured this month’s free offering to non-premium e-mail subscribers (and to the general public as a whole) should kick that recurring feature off. With that in mind, here is my official preseason look at the Big Ten in the form of Big Ten Power Rankings (Vol. 1).

(If you want a deeper look into my thoughts on the 2020 season, including game-by-game predictions for every Big Ten team [back when there was a thing called “non-conference games,”] I did a deep dive on predictions back in June that can be found here ($).)

Tier 1 - The “Elite”

No. 1: Ohio State

2019 SP+: No. 1

Key returnees: Justin Fields, Chris Olave, Master Teague, Wyatt Davis, Josh Myers, Thayer Munford, Shaun Wade, Zach Harrison, Tyreke Smith, Baron Browning.

Key losses: Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, JK Dobbins, KJ Hill, Davon Hamilton, Jonah Jackson, Malik Harrison, Jordan Fuller.

Key matchups: @Penn State, Michigan, Iowa

Skinny: Ohio State is my No. 1 team in the country heading into the 2020 season regardless of conference. So it should come as no surprise that it’s at the top of my Big Ten power rankings. Justin Fields is side-by-side with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence as the top returning QB in the country in my book, and I like Ohio State’s collection of skill position talent more than I like Clemson’s — especially with the news of Justyn Ross’s season-ending injury. There won’t be a JK Dobbins-like threat at RB this season. I actually really like Master Teague, but his status entering the season is a bit up in the air with an offseason Achilles injury. I’m not as sold on Trey Sermon as others — he was a healthy scratch for Oklahoma at times last year and has regressed in the past. But the Buckeyes also don’t need to have a dominant RB and I think they’re going to keep tilting the scales a bit more toward the passing game under Ryan Day. And with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson on board, along with the all-world incoming freshman tandem of Julian Fleming (nation's No. 1 WR and No. 3 overall player) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (nation's No. 5 WR and No. 28 overall player), the OSU WR room is going to be one of the most talented in the country for the next half decade.

And just a note on Smith-Njigba: Fleming may be the higher-rated of the two five-stars and one of the highest-ranked WRs in the history of recruiting rankings, but Smith-Njigba is potentially the best HS WR I’ve ever seen play in person. He’s absurdly talented. Which is great news for Buckeye fans and horrible news for the other 13 teams in the Big Ten, both this season and beyond.

Tier 2 - The “Very Good”

No. 2: Michigan

2019 SP+: No. 10

Key returnees: Jalen Mayfield, Zach Charbonnet, Nico Collins, Ronnie Bell, Ambry Thomas, Kwity Paye, Aidan Hutchinson, Cam McGrone.

Key losses: Shea Patterson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cesar Ruiz, Ben Bredeson, Michael Onwenu, Josh Uche, Khaleke Hudson, Josh Metellus, LaVert Hill.

Key matchups: @Ohio State, Penn State, @Minnesota, Wisconsin

Skinny: This is probably the most glaring “surprise” of this list — at least at the top. Penn State will be ahead of Michigan is just about every preseason poll you can find. Michigan lost its starting QB this offseason and Penn State returns its signal-caller. Michigan lost 10 players to the NFL Draft, Penn State only lost five. The Nittany Lions won the head-to-head battle against the Wolverines last year. So why does Michigan get the nod?

Basically, it comes down to this simple fact: I don’t think Penn State is good enough to beat Ohio State in Happy Valley, and I don’t think it can beat Michigan on the road in Ann Arbor. In a total vacuum, is Penn State probably a slightly better team than Michigan heading into this season? Yeah, probably. I’d give PSU a fairly comfortable edge at RB, TE, OL and LB, and lean in the Nittany Lions’ direction in a couple other spots, namely QB.

But Penn State has a grand total of one win in Ann Arbor in 8,600+ days. And that was against Rich Rodriguez in 2009. Outside of that outlier, Michigan has won the other 8 games. Half of those victories have been by more than three touchdowns, including each of the last two — a 35- and a 39-point win, respectively.

Michigan has a much more difficult crossover schedule than Penn State, but a head-to-head win over Penn State would give Michigan a game in hand and a tiebreaker over the Nittany Lions, and I just don’t see Michigan losing three conference games this fall.

No. 3: Penn State

2019 SP+: No. 6

Key returnees: Sean Clifford, Journey Brown, Jahan Dotson, Pat Friermuth, Micah Parsons, Shaka Toney, Tariq Castro-Fields, Lamont Wade.

Key losses: Yetur Gross-Matos, KJ Hamler, Ricky Slade, John Reid, Cameron Brown, Robert Windsor.

Key matchups: Ohio State, @Michigan, Iowa, @Indiana

Skinny: I basically covered this above. Penn State has a really solid team heading into this fall. I think considering Penn State a potential top 5 team nationally like some are is a bit of a reach, though. The Nittany Lions will be breaking in another offensive coordinator in the form of Minnesota’s former OC Kirk Ciarrocca. I actually really like Ciarrocca and what he did with the Gophers, but I’m not sure it’s a great personnel fit right now and there could be an acclimation period. Minnesota’s offense was at its best when WRs Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman were the focal points. Penn State’s wideouts were once a strength, but the last couple of years they have been the team’s least consistent part of its offensive attack. If a Jahan Dotson-type can make the leap to a true WR1 threat, I think Penn State could be in good shape. But I still don’t like PSU’s chances to beat either Ohio State or Michigan this fall, so the No. 3 slot is their ceiling when it comes to my preseason power rankings.

No. 4: Wisconsin

2019 SP+: No. 11

Key returnees: Jack Coan, Nakia Watson, Jake Ferguson, Kendric Pryor, Cole Van Lanen, Logan Bruss Isaiahh Loudermilk, Jack Sanborn, Eric Burrell, Faion Hicks.

Key losses: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Biadasz, Quintez Cephus, Zack Baun.

Key matchups: @Michigan, Minnesota, @Iowa

Skinny: This No. 4 vs. No. 5 battle is similar to the Michigan-Penn State situation in the battle for the No. 2/No. 3 spots. I don’t necessarily think Wisconsin has the most talented team in the Big Ten West — particularly on the offensive side of the ball — but I do think the Badgers have a longer established track record that I’d feel more comfortable hitching my wagon to. And, most importantly, the reason they’re getting the nod over the Golden Gophers in the preseason version of these power rankings is their head-to-head matchup with Minnesota is in Madison. Home-field advantage isn’t going to mean louder crowds and a truly hostile environment like it has in past years, but there will be clear advantages to staying in town, having comfortable surroundings and not dealing with a lot of COVID-related travel “extras” that will undoubtedly be added to itineraries for road games.

Wisconsin’s “key losses” entry is shorter than anyone else in the top 5 of these power rankings, but what it lacks in quantity is made up for in quality. Jonathan Taylor is the biggest loss any Big Ten team will have to cope with losing heading into this season, and while Nakia Watson and Garrett Groshek have shown flashes of productivity in backup roles to Taylor in past years, I think most Wisconsin fans are hoping someone like Jalen Berger or Julius Davis can step in and break out and jump some of the more senior members of the depth chart like Badger star running backs in past years have been able to do. The defense should be very solid and pretty easily the best of the West. But it’s hard to see where a lot of the points will be coming from, and the Badgers would have been bumped down at least one spot in these rankings had it not been for home-field advantage with the No. 5 team on this list…

No. 5: Minnesota

2019 SP+: No. 13

Key returnees: Tanner Morgan, Mo Ibrahim, Rashod Bateman, Blaise Andries, Daniel Faalele, Coney Durr.

Key losses: Tyler Johnson, Rodney Smith, Antoine Winfield Jr., Kamal Martin, Carter Coughlin, Chris Williamson, Sam Renner.

Key matchups: @Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa

Skinny: Tyler Johnson leaving is a big blow, but Rashod Bateman could be even better than Johnson was a year ago. And Tanner Morgan doesn’t get the respect he deserves on a national level. He’s very likely the conference’s best NFL prospect at QB behind Justin Fields.

The Golden Gophers lost a lot of players in the offseason — they set a program record by having five players drafted. All but Johnson were on the defensive side of the ball, though, and I think it’s a reasonable expectation for Minnesota’s offense to be better this season than it was last season. The Big Ten West trends more to the manball side of things than the East, so Minnesota’s defense being a step below last year’s standards may not be as big of a deal as it would be if the Gophers were having to take on Ohio State and Penn State (they avoid both when it comes to crossovers).

Tier 3 - “Deceptively Dangerous”

No. 6: Iowa

2019 SP+: No. 20

Skinny: The Hawkeyes had a whirlwind offseason that had very little to do with football itself. But when (or if?) that stuff is pushed aside and the focus returns to football, Iowa will remain in this spoiler spot that it has more or less resided in for the better part of the last five years. Tyler Goodson has the potential to become a household name at RB, especially since he’ll be running behind multiple All Big Ten first-team caliber offensive linemen.

There is no Big Ten team with a tougher schedule than Iowa has this fall (especially if my projection that Iowa-Michigan will be added as a 10th conference game ends up being right). That means it’s really, really unlikely that the Hawkeyes are in any sort of contention for the Big Ten West title. But it also means they’ll have multiple opportunities to play spoiler against the teams listed above it in these power rankings, and I’ll be surprised if they don’t emerge from the other side of that gauntlet with at least one upset victory.

No. 7: Indiana

2019 SP+: No. 23

Skinny: Even without a coaching change in East Lansing, Indiana has been flirting with making this leap and it’s all the more a thing now that Michigan State is breaking in a new coaching staff. Tom Allen led the Hoosiers to an 8-4 regular season mark last year, one that was almost 9-3 (or even 10-2) — Michigan State kicked a FG with five seconds left to beat Indiana at home last year, and Indiana/Penn State were within three points of each other with two minutes to play in Happy Valley. The latter performance came with Peyton Ramsey at QB, not Michael Penix, Jr, due to injury. Penix has since chased Ramsey out of Bloomington and into the QB race in Evanston. And if you didn’t get to see Penix play while he was healthy, I suggest you fire up the YouTube machine and see it for yourself. He’s potentially the most dynamic QB in the conference not named Justin Fields.

Indiana isn’t going to flirt with joining the Big 3 in the Big Ten East, but I think the Hoosiers will firmly be in the No. 4 spot in the divison, and be a pretty safe bet to return to a bowl game for the second straight season.

Tier 4 - “Ready To Make The Leap”

No. 8: Nebraska

2019 SP+: No. 55

Skinny: Look, I haven’t been shy when it comes to my thoughts on Scott Frost and the job he has done since taking over the Nebraska program. But there’s reason to be fairly bullish when it comes to the Cornhuskers chances to take a step or two up this fall (look no further than the team directly above Nebraska: Indiana). Tom Allen had the Hoosiers go 5-7 and 5-7 in Years 1 and 2 before going 8-4 in Year 3.

There aren’t many Big Ten programs with a better situation at QB than Nebraska. Adrian Martinez didn’t replicate the success he had as a freshman starting QB last year during his sophomore campaign, but few programs have the luxury of entering this fall with a QB leading a team for a third straight year. And if things keep going south, Luke McCaffrey is a very high-upside backup just waiting for his time to shine.

There are some issues — the team’s best RB last year, Maurice Washington, is off the team for disciplinary reasons and the team’s most reliable WR over the past few years, JD Spielman, just announced his transfer to TCU — but Nebraska probably has the most skill talent out of any team in the West. Wan’Dale Robinson has the potential to be a multi-year All-Big Ten caliber player. So don’t tell Scott Frost (or his mom) that I said this. But I like the Cornhuskers’ chances of being the Big Ten team that has the biggest year-to-year improvement in terms of overall record this fall.

No. 9: Purdue

2019 SP+: No. 64

Skinny: The Boilers lost Biletnikoff contender and arguably the conference’s most dynamic player Rondale Moore to a season-ending injury before October even hit. Starting QB Elijah Sindelar saw his season come to an end before the end of September, too. So it was tough to expect that Year 3 leap to happen with an offense held together by duct tape and some gum found under someone’s desk.

One good thing that came out of the lost season of 2019: The emergence of true freshman WR David Bell. That means the Boilers will enter this season with by far the most dangerous 1-2 punch at wide receiver in the Big Ten — and hell, maybe the country.

There are still some question marks as to who will be the guy at QB now that Sindelar retired from football. I bet Jack Plummer gets the first shot but I actually like the upside of UCLA grad transfer Austin Burton the most. If someone emerges, Purdue could be a sneaky dangerous team in the West, especially since it avoids Penn State and Ohio State on this year’s schedule (at least so far).

Tier 5 - “Not Making Bowl Plans”

No. 10: Michigan State

2019 SP+: No. 42

Skinny: This may be hard to believe given the fact that its offense was ranked 104th in the country last fall, but Michigan State loses one of the biggest chunks of production from a year ago. Brian Lewerke is gone. And it’s hard to tell who is ready to step in behind him at quarterback at a Power 5 level. Rocky Lombardi completed 33% of his passes last year and had a 0-2 TD/INT ratio. The team’s three leading receivers are gone, with Cody White and Darrell Stewart having combined for more than 100 catches, 1,500 yards and 10 TDs between themselves last year. I like the idea of WMU transfer Jayden Reed stepping in and making an immediate impact, but he’s going to need help. Elijah Collins showed some flashes of being the next really good Michigan State running back, but 611 yards on 157 carries for less than 3.9 yards/carry in Big Ten play doesn’t yell “future building block” to most people.

Antjuan Simmons should be the heart and soul of the defense, and I’ve always enjoyed watching him play, but the talent level on the Spartan defense has continued to drop year-by-year over the past few years. Arguably the five best players from last year’s defense — Kenny Willekes, Tyriq Thompson, Joe Bachie, Josiah Scott and Raequan Williams — are gone. There just simply isn’t much talent on this roster. And the new coaching staff doesn’t have close to the track record with development as the previous one did. If No. 10 seems low in this year’s power rankings, you’re not going to want to click on next year’s preseason rankings, because it’s far more likely the Spartans are heading in a downward trajectory than an upward one.

No. 11: Illinois

2019 SP+: No. 61

Skinny: The Fighting Illini showed true signs of life in 2019 for the first time of the four-year Lovie Smith era. Was it an anomaly? Eh, yeah, probably. The good news for Illinois is it gets one more year of Brandon Peters, who pleasantly surprised folks as a grad transfer from Michigan. He started 11 games last fall, with his most memorable performance being a 369-yard, 3 TD performance on the road in East Lansing that spurred a comeback victory after being down 28-3. It’s not really fair to Illinois to chalk up some of last year’s wins as flukes, but it’s also hard to look at games like last year’s Illinois-Wisconsin game and dub it as anything but a fluke.

WR Josh Imatorbhebhe is probably one of the conference’s most under-the-radar players that have the ability to be true All Big Ten talent. But until Illinois can start consistently recruiting a lot of the Chicago talent that surrounds it geographically, it’s hard to justify putting them in any other tier than this one.

No. 12: Maryland

2019 SP+: No. 96

Skinny: I actually really like the way Mike Locksley is recruiting and how the Terrapins are adding talent to their roster in as many ways possible (anytime you can add a Tagovailoa to your roster means it’s been a pretty productive offseason), but I really don’t see a ton of reason for optimism when it comes to the 2020 season. The Terrapins went 3-9 last year, with just a 1-8 mark in conference play. That included seven straight conference losses to close the season, and only two of those losses were remotely competitive (a 34-28 home loss to Indiana and a 19-16 road loss to Michigan State in the final game of the season).

If I’m Locksley, I’m using the 2020 season to get young, talented guys acclimated to the system and used to getting reps in hopes of it paying dividends in future seasons. I’m fascinated to see how true freshman WR Rakim Jarrett performs in 2020. He was a five-star WR that Maryland was able to flip from a commitment to LSU on signing day. Looks like another Stefon Diggs situation in College Park, where a clearly overqualified player ends up a Terrapin. Diggs did well for Maryland and has turned into a great pro, but I think Maryland could do an even better job getting a player like Jarrett touches.

No. 13: Northwestern

2019 SP+: No. 91

Skinny: It might seem harsh having the Wildcats this low just two seasons removed from a Big Ten Championship Game appearance, but I really can’t justify having them ahead of anyone on this list if I do a team-by-team comparison. There were times last year where it really didn’t even look like the sport Northwestern was playing was the same sport the other 13 (ok, 12 of the other 13) teams were playing. The Wildcats threw for six touchdowns — six! — all season long. That put them in a tie with Army for the 128th most in the country. And that was on the heels of adding former five-star QB Hunter Johnson as the team’s signal caller.

This year, Northwestern poached Peyton Ramsey from Big Ten foe Indiana after Ramsey lost the QB job to Michael Penix Jr. That should at least add a competent arm to that QB room, but it’s also quite telling on the current state of Northwestern’s program when it is having to pick up Indiana’s leftovers at the most important spot on a football field. The only thing Northwestern has working for it is the fact that it’s in the West. There will be some winnable matchups against other schools with flaws, and Northwestern has the ability to muck up some games and come away with a victory.