Your Week 14 college football viewing guide: With Michigan's game canceled, what should you be watching? Here are some options, along with my weekly predictions

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Dec 04, 2020

Some programming notes at the top before we get to this week’s games:

— Michigan’s game on Saturday is canceled. I was going to appear on WTKA’s Michigan football pregame show, but that is canceled as well. To make up for it, I’ll be hosting a live chat at 3:30 eastern, the normally scheduled kickoff time for Saturday’s would-be Michigan-Maryland game. It will take place on my YouTube channel — I’ve embedded the player below. My only ask of you: if you enjoy these free live Q&As, please take a second and subscribe to the YouTube channel and give the post a like. It’s a new channel and I’d like for it to grow, so you taking a couple seconds out of your day to help make that happen can go a long way. You can subscribe HERE.

— In case you’ve missed it, I’ve had some recent premium posts, most of which center around the future of the Michigan football program and who may/should be coaching beyond this season. Here are some links to those posts, as well as some subscription options if you’re not already a premium subscriber and are interested in becoming one:

— Finally, a heads up to U-M Alumni Club members. On Dec. 14, I’ll be doing a special Zoom Q&A as a fundraiser for the Dallas Chapter of the U-M Alumni Club. I’ve been told it will be open to other chapters as well. Expect to see more information on that in the coming days, but I wanted to get that on your radars ahead of time.

And with that, let’s get to this week’s games.

Week 14 viewing guide

This week’s Big Ten games

Ohio State at Michigan State, noon (abc)

I guess Michigan State is less intimidating than Illinois, because Ryan Day decided not to waive the white flag for his program this weekend and will be allowing it to play in East Lansing on Saturday.

This seems like a lower-than-expected line to me. Michigan State is coming off a really impressive win over Northwestern, but Ohio State just seems like the much better team in this one. We’re not privy to which players will still be out because of the COVID outbreak that caused the pause in the Buckeyes’ season last week, though.

The Spartans followed up their first impressive showing of the season — a 27-24 win over Michigan back in October — with a 42-point loss to Iowa. There’s no science that shows that’s how they’ll follow up last week’s strong showing, but it’s tough for an overmatched team to play near its ceiling for two straight weeks. I expect a regression to the mean on Saturday and a very comfortable win for an Ohio State team that needs some style points to impress the committee.

Line: Ohio State -23.5

Prediction: Ohio State 49, Michigan State 13

Nebraska at Purdue, noon (BTN)

Scott Frost has now coached in 29 games as Nebraska’s head coach. He was won 10 of them. Just a little perspective for Michigan fans who think they know what true pain is.

Even with the handicap of being coached by Landry Clarke’s stunt double, this feels like a game that Nebraska steals this weekend. Those Michigan fans who clamor for Jeff Brohm’s name to be included on any potential future candidate lists must not have watched last week’s Purdue-Rutgers game, because that was a masterclass in how to blow a game.

As long as Frost keeps the QB rotating to the minimum (seriously, who the hell is changing QBs mid-drive in the 4th quarter of a one-possession game?), I like the Cornhuskers to pull off the mini upset in this one.

Line: Purdue -1.5

Prediction: Nebraska 34, Purdue 31

Penn State at Rutgers, noon (FS1)

It looks like Penn State may have found something in freshman RB Keyvone Lee — someone nobody outside of Lee and his immediate family could have expected to play and make an impact this season based on Penn State’s RB depth chart. Some of that success last week may have been a product of getting to face Michigan’s swiss cheese defense, but he certainly seemed to be earning a good chunk of his yards, too.

Rutgers is playing with house money at this point in the season. The Scarlet Knights have already won a pair of games and narrowly avoided collecting a couple others. This will already be labeled as a successful Year 1 for Greg Schiano. So they might as well play care-free like they did in the later stages of the Ohio State game and hope for the best. I think they keep this one close and grab another cover, but I do think Penn State has enough fire power on offense to escape with the actual win.

Line: Penn State -11

Prediction: Penn State 28, Rutgers 21

Indiana at Wisconsin, 3:30 pm (abc)

This is the only matchup between ranked teams on this week’s Big Ten slate, and it looks like a game that should be exciting to watch. Unfortunately, the news about Michael Penix Jr. really kills the excitement in this one, at least for me. We’ll see how much of Indiana’s success Nick Sheridan can stake a claim to this weekend without an all-world athlete like Penix running the show.

The Hoosiers pivoted well to a run-first attack last week after Penix went down. But that’s much, much easier to do against Maryland than it will be against a team like Wisconsin. If Indiana wants to keep this one close, it will need to be thanks to Jack Tuttle’s arm. And unfortunately for people hoping for a close game this weekend, I don’t have much faith in Tuttle’s arm. I’ll take the Badgers outright and against the spread.

Line: Wisconsin -14

Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Indiana 14

Iowa at Illinois, 3:30 pm (FS1)

If you watch a second of this game on Saturday, you have issues. There is only one acceptable game to be watching during this time slot that includes a team from the Hawkeye State, and, hint: it’s not this one.

Spoiler alert: Iowa wins. And probably by a lot.

Line: Iowa -13.5

Prediction: Iowa 35, Illinois 14

Four non-Big Ten games worth watching

(Since we’ve got an abbreviated Big Ten slate this week, I’m expanding my “three non-Big Ten games to watch” feature to include a fourth game. These should stretch across the day and give you a non-B1G option at all points of the day.)

Texas A&M at Auburn, noon (ESPN)

I was asked about Mike Elko as a potential fit to run Michigan’s defense this week in my mailbag, and with good reason. The guy has done a fantastic job at College Station. The Aggies have the top-ranked team defense in the SEC this season, giving up 338.2 yards per game. That number is all the more impressive when you consider SEC schools are only playing fellow SEC opponents this fall and miss out on all the usual lay-ups in the non-conference schedule. (Don’t get your hopes up on the Elko front, by the way. Texas A&M is one of the few programs Michigan can’t just money whip and steal their assistants.)

As for this game, this line was as tight as -4 at one stage, but I’m sick of doubting Texas A&M. I think the Aggies lead this one wire-to-wire, and while it’s likely to stay close, I think they’ll pull away late and make this a double-digit win and a comfortable cover, staying alive in the race for the program’s first-ever CFP berth.

Line: Texas A&M -5.5

Prediction: Texas A&M 31, Auburn 21

West Virginia at Iowa State, 3:30 pm (ESPN)

You didn’t think I’d leave Matt Campbell’s game off this week’s must-watch list, right? After its huge win last week, that served as both the unofficial clincher for a Big 12 title game berth and as the de facto end to the Tom Herman regime in Austin, Iowa State hosts West Virginia in its regular season finale. Despite being the Big 12’s lone one-loss team with only a game left on its schedule, there are still some scenarios that could keep Iowa State out of the title game if West Virginia can pull off the upset. So Iowa State needs to take care of business here. And a Mountaineer squad with a winning conference record isn’t exactly a gimmee. But well-coached teams don’t lose games like this. And Iowa State is a well-coached team.

The Cyclones win, cover and officially punch their tickets to the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time in program history. And Michigan fans twiddle their thumbs and wait for a resolution on Jim Harbaugh’s future.

Line: Iowa State -6.5

Prediction: Iowa State 27, West Virginia 17

BYU at Coastal Carolina, 5:30 pm (ESPNU)

Props to both teams here that made this matchup happen on short notice. This game was solidified about 48 hours before kick time, and it’s giving a pair of unbeaten teams that feel like they’re not getting their due respect a chance to make a statement on a national stage — or at least as national of a stage that a game on ESPNU can provide. It’s also an opportunity for Zach Wilson to show he deserves a seat at the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York later this month.

As much as I’ll be pulling for Coastal Carolina in this one, I think the Cougars ultimately pick up the quality win here. But not the name-brand, resume-solidifying win it desperately needs. And not the cover that its sinful fans who dare place money on a game would desperately need, either.

Line: BYU -10

Prediction: BYU 35, Coastal Carolina 27

Alabama at LSU, 8 pm (cbs)

There really isn't much reason to watch this outside of rooting for a blowout of such epic proportions that maybe people get rivalry game blowout fatigue before next weekend and Michigan isn't shamed as much as you'd expect for losing to Ohio State by 30+ points. So with that in mind: Roll. Damn. Tide.

Line: LSU -29.5

Prediction: Alabama 52, LSU 17

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