Your Week 13 college football viewing guide: Breaking down/predicting Michigan vs. Penn State, plus other key games from around the country

This post is unlocked and available for all readers.

Nov 27, 2020

Holiday time has pulled me away from the newsletter more than most weeks, so this will be a pretty abbreviated newsletter in terms of the amount I’m writing on each game. But I wanted to still get this out prior to this weekend’s games and get my thoughts on the record.

A couple other housekeeping items first:

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I have a Black Friday deal running through tomorrow. It’s 25% off an annual subscription — the cheapest deal I’ve ever offered.
Get 25% off for 1 year
I’m going to be doing a live Q&A on my YouTube channel tonight. Exact start time is still TBD since there are a lot of moving holiday parts, but keep an eye on my Twitter account for more details on that as the day goes on.

Now let’s (briefly) talk about some college football this weekend.

Week 13 Viewing Guide

This week’s Big Ten games

Penn State at Michigan, noon (abc)

Michigan is favored. Penn State hasn’t won a game all season long. In fact, the Nittany Lions are the first team in college football history to start a season in the top 10 and lose their first five games. Seems like a pretty decent bet for Michigan to return to .500?

Doesn’t pass the smell test for me, though. I think most people are forgetting just how much of a detriment it is to play without bookends both your offensive and defensive line. And no matter how bad Penn State may be this season, it’s still not Rutgers bad. The tipping point for me? Jahan Dotson. I expect him to strike early and often against a Michigan secondary that hasn’t been able to contain a fast, dynamic receiver all season long, and that’s exactly what he is.

Line: Michigan -2

Prediction: Penn State 35, Michigan 28

Nebraska at Iowa, 1 pm (FOX — Friday)

Here’s your Friday Big Ten matchup. I keep expecting Nebraska to show some pride. But then things like last weekend happen. It looked like the baton had been passed from Adrian Martinez to Luke McCaffrey after McCaffrey’s performance against Penn State, but that QB situation could be back to up in the air after a poor McCaffrey showing against Illinois the following week.

I think Iowa can and will dominate Nebraska with its running game this weekend — similar to what it did against Penn State last week — but 13 points is still a lot, and Scott Frost is the type of coach to celebrate a backdoor cover like it’s a true victory. Given how this season has been going for Nebraska, can you really blame him? I think Iowa cruises, but Nebraska scores late to cover.

Line: Iowa -13

Prediction: Iowa 34, Nebraska 24

Ohio State at Illinois, noon (FS1)

It’s looking like this will be played after an extended period of legitimate concern in the middle of the week. Ohio State has reportedly had a pretty decent-sized COVID outbreak within its program that has spread into multiple units. But most expected the game to be called on Thursday if it was to be called at all, so it looks like we’re in the clear.

As for the game itself, it might be hard to project which individuals make plays on offense since there’s uncertainty over which individuals will play, but it won’t be hard to protect success in general. Ohio State is a well-oiled machine, and I expect those late hiccups against Indiana to be the exception and not the rule when it comes to the Buckeyes’ performance down the stretch. Ryan Day has shown multiple times this year he’s not afraid to go for style points late, and I think that will be the case even moreso coming off a close win that hurt the national perception of the Buckeyes a bit last weekend.

Line: Ohio State -28

Prediction: Ohio State 59, Illinois 17

Maryland at Indiana, noon (ESPN2)

Maryland has been out of sight, out a mind in recent weeks. Back-to-back canceled games against Ohio State and Michigan State will do that for you. But after a dud in its opener against Northwestern, Maryland actually looked like a pretty capable program in its next two games — a pair of wins over Minnesota and Penn State.

If Indiana wasn’t so well-coached, I’d consider this game a serious candidate for an out-of-nowhere upset game, despite the fact that the Terrapins are two-touchdown underdogs. The Tom Allen factor won’t let me go that far out on a limb, but I do expect Maryland to cover with the aid of a generous +13 cushion.

Line: Indiana -13

Prediction: Indiana 35, Maryland 24

Northwestern at Michigan State, 3:30 pm (ESPN)

This game has an over/under of 41 POINTS(!!) That’s an outrageously low line. Even more outrageous, though? I like the under in this one.

The second-half puntfest in last week’s Wisconsin-Northwestern game was just the appetizer for this game, which I expect to be even more offensive to anyone looking for … well, offense. But don’t confuse Northwestern’s ability to muck up a game and prevent any success on offense with the Wildcats being a poor team (guilty as charged on that front from earlier this season). Northwestern has one of the nation’s top defenses and I expect it to cruise to the Big Ten Title Game at this point.

Line: Northwestern - 13

Prediction: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 13

Rutgers at Purdue, 4 pm (FS1)

Purdue’s offense is a blast to watch now that Rondale Moore is back. And I think they found something in Jack Plummer at QB last weekend. But like I said last week in my Michigan-Rutgers preview, giving up more than a touchdown worth of points to a Greg Schiano-coached team just seems foolish, and I’ll gladly take the Scarlet Knights and the points here. Last week’s game said a lot about both Michigan and Rutgers, but one of those things was that Rutgers isn’t a team that’s going to lie down against a more talented opponent. It will play for 60 whole minutes. And while the program isn’t really to the point where it can go into games like this and expect to contend week in and week out, it’s also in a good enough place to be able to avoid losing by more than two scores.

Line: Purdue -12

Prediction: Purdue 35, Rutgers 28

Three non-Big Ten games worth watching

(FWIW, I also highly recommend watching the Texas-Iowa State game. But that’s kicking off right at the time I’m sending this, so I’m keeping that one out of my write-up, since you wouldn’t be able to wager any fictional dollars if you were, in theory, using these write-ups to try acquire more fictional legal tender.)

Apologies for the heavy SEC flavor to this week’s lineup — but all of the other games suck.

Auburn at Alabama, 3:30 pm (cbs)

I don’t expect this year’s Iron Bowl to be particularly competitive, but I do think it will be a compelling watch. Nick Saban won’t be there, which will be an odd enough dynamic on its own to get me to tune in. But I’ll also to be curious to see what if anything is different when it comes to how things operate under Steve Sarkisian than Saban. Sark’s name is one that has come up a fair amount when people are discussing candidates they’d like Michigan to look into, and while I think there’s going to be heavy interest in him from some of the SEC openings, too, I actually think his name is more intriguing than a lot of the other names that get thrown up against a wall with hopes of it sticking.

As for the game itself, Alabama just has way too much talent for Auburn to have a legitimate shot at getting an upset in this one. Even with Jaylen Waddle gone, Mac Jones has a ton of weapons at his disposal, including DeVonta Smith, John Metchie and — oh yeah — some guy named Najee Harris (ducks). The Tide will roll early. The Tide will roll often.

Line: Alabama -24

Prediction: Alabama 52, Auburn 21

Mississippi State at Ole Miss, 4 pm (SEC Network)

Look, neither of these teams are doing much in the way of contending this fall as they break in new coaches. But if this year’s Egg Bowl isn’t on your to-watch list on Saturday, you’re doing things very, very wrong. Last year’s game, which ended because Ole Miss star WR Elijah Moore pretended to pee on a football, was a great window into the chaos that this series provides.

Add Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach into the mix? It’s about to get even more real. These are arguably the two college football coaches with the fewest fs to give. Neither coach is interested in making friends, and I’m hoping that translates to a memorable rivalry moment or two on Saturday.

As for the game itself, I expect Ole Miss to win relatively big. After Leach and Mississippi State captured the hearts of the college football world with an opening-week upset over LSU, things have not been going well for the pirate down in StarkVegas. That win over LSU meant less and less the more people realized LSU was a fraud this season. And Leach has had double-digit players leave the program in-season, including Kylin Hill — one of the most dynamic players in the country. Ole Miss’ defense still isn’t anything to write home about (sorry to everyone in my mentions hoping for a Chris Partridge-to-Ann Arbor reunion), but its offense is elite, and I expect Matt Corral to carve up the Bulldog defense early and often in this one.

Line: Ole Miss -9

Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Mississippi State 31

LSU at Texas A&M, 7 pm (ESPN)

This continues my theme of selecting SEC games that aren’t supposed to be very close, but should still be worth tuning into for non-competitive reasons. The LSU-Texas A&M rivalry is a sneaky underrated rivalry that has had poaching of coaches, physical altercations after games and produced one of the craziest, most memorable games of our lifetime the last time these two schools met in College Station.

I caution saying this could be closer than many expect, since I still have a lot of egg left on my face from all the stuff I said in the preseason about not thinking Texas A&M will be very good this season, but I do think if there’s a game where LSU will show some signs of life left on its schedule, it will be this one. The Tigers’ ceiling is still relatively limited because of their current QB room, but that offense still has some truly dynamic playmakers — most notable Terrace Marshall.

But Texas A&M will win this game. There aren’t a lot of teams in the country that are more consistently sound in all areas of the game as the Aggies are this season. This one might be close for a bit, but I do think the Aggies pull away late — just not quite enough for the cover.

Line: Texas A&M -14.5

Prediction: Texas A&M 38, LSU 27

Get 25% off for 1 year

The Scott Bell Newsletter

Discussion about this post