Michigan 30, Fresno State 10: Feeling defensive
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As I send this column out, it marks Year 5 of me providing in-season coverage in this space. No two seasons have been the same. Consequently, I’ve had to wear a lot of different hats depending on what happens on the field.
In Year 1, during Michigan’s pandemic season of 2020, it felt more like I was being a fan therapist than any sort of author. Last year, during Michigan’s National Championship run, it oftentimes felt like I was being more of a head cheerleader or a social director on a cruise ship than some dude breaking down Michigan football games. The highs are fun. The lows certainly aren’t. But each season is a memorable ride for a multitude of reasons, and I expect that to continue as we dip our toes into the uncharted waters of a Michigan National Championship defense in the College Football Playoff era.
After Saturday’s game against Fresno State, that title defense is officially underway. If you look at the standings, it’s been successful so far — by winning 30-10, Michigan is unbeaten on the young season and has extended its regular season winning streak to a record 29 games spanning all the way back to the 2021 season. More on that in a bit.
But it was far from rainbows and butterflies over the course of the 3.5-hour contest. And it became pretty clear that the fan therapist hat that had been collecting dust over the past three seasons might be making its return this fall.
To be fair, though, I warned you. In my preview for Saturday’s game, I more or less forecasted exactly what ended up happening. The final graph of my write-up was as follows:
Ultimately, I think we get a relatively solid performance out of Michigan, but also a fairly robust list of things to clean up before the following week’s top-10 matchup against Texas. I don’t expect too much tipping of hands with that big game looming, and because of some of that reluctance to get too much on film, I think Fresno State (and the 21 points the Bulldogs are getting) is the way to lean when picking against the spread. I don’t do over/unders in this space, but my favorite bet on this game is the under on 45.5 points.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Fresno State 6
I’m glad I wrote that ahead of time. Not just because I wanted to be right about the spread and the over/under (though that’s a nice bonus), but because I wanted to make sure to flag this ahead of time so it didn’t seem like I was making excuses after the fact.
Fresno State may not be Alabama. But this was a competent football team that I fully expect to be bowling come December. The Bulldogs were unranked coming into the Big House — a product of a rough injury-riddled end to the 2023 season — but they continued to look the part of one of the best G5 programs in America. Keep in mind, Fresno State won 29 games over the last three seasons, capping off each of those years with a bowl win. It entered this season ranked higher in the SP+ rankings than 14 different Power 4 schools, including at least one from every major conference: six ACC schools, four Big Ten teams, three Big 12 programs and yes, even one member of the big, bad SEC.
And let’s not lose sight of this point, either. Michigan’s 20-point win over Fresno State was far from dominant. But take a look around the rest of the conference. Oregon only beat Idaho by 10, a margin that was only three points until the Ducks scored a late touchdown to "pull away." Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic by less than a touchdown. Ohio State ended up blowing out Akron thanks to a 35-3 second half, but that was a one-score game 25 minutes into it. Week 1 is Week 1. Teams will struggle. And some of the best did exactly that during Opening Weekend 2024.
In this newsletter space, during my weekly radio appearances and when serving as the featured speaker at the U-M Dallas Alumni Club Kickoff Event earlier in August, I’ve said some variation of this at least five times this offseason: “Michigan’s National Championship is going to earn a lot of mileage out of me. I know how hard it is to win it all, and I can’t really see a realistic scenario where I allow myself to get truly mad about Michigan football in the next couple of seasons.”
I promise this isn’t a long, unnecessary wind up to a sanctimonious lecture to fans about being too negative. I’ve shared how I’m approaching the 2024 season when it comes to patience and grace. But I am absolutely not here to play fan police, and I respect how anyone and everyone approaches fandom, as long as it’s within reason and you’re not calling out a bunch of 18-to-23 year old kids. And let’s be real: I have a set of eyes, too. I saw the exact same things on Saturday that gave me concern, both in the moment and going forward, and I’ll be breaking those down later in this column.
I just wanted to use the top of this column to remind folks that yes, there will be struggles at times this fall. Struggles happen everywhere, even for defending National Champions. But especially for defending National Champions who lost their coach, their first-round NFL Draft pick QB, their record-breaking RB, their two starting WRs, their top 6(!) offensive linemen, more than a handful of NFL-bound defenders, your head coach, your defensive coordinator, a slew of primary assistants and even more analysts and support staffers.
Call the above whatever you want. Context, excuses, some hybrid of the two. But no matter where you land on it, just know that excuses don’t take the place of expectations. I have high expectations for this program, and I’m certainly not alone in that. Nineteen of the 22 experts I featured in my preseason roundtable expects Michigan in the CFP. Even with Michigan’s offense looking the way it did on Saturday, I’m still not close to wanting a do-over on my prediction, and Michigan’s elite defense is the main reason why.
Here’s a 5,000-plus word deep dive into the good, the bad and the TBD from Michigan’s 2024 season opener, a 30-10 win over Fresno State.
