Week 1 viewing guide: Breaking down/predicting Michigan vs. Fresno State, plus other key games from around the country
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(ICYMI: Yesterday I outlined the weekly content plans for this newsletter during the upcoming college football season. I also announced some exciting giveaways for the upcoming season, which include commemorative National Championship and J.J. McCarthy footballs and autographed items from Zak Zinter and Mikey Sainristil. For more information on that, CLICK HERE.)
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Week 1 viewing guide
This will typically be a newsletter that goes out on Fridays. But with five different Big Ten games being played on Thursday/Friday this week, it makes sense to get this out on Wednesday so I can get all of the predictions on the record before the first game kicks off. I’m also incredibly amped for the season to start so I couldn’t help myself from hammering this out ahead of time.
For newcomers (or returning people who just need a refresher), the plan for this weekly “viewing guide” staple is as follows:
Break down and predict Michigan’s game, straight and against the spread
Break down and predict the three best non-Michigan Big Ten games of the week, both straight and against the spread
Give rapid-fire predictions for all remaining Big Ten games, both straight and against the spread
Break down and predict the three best non-Big Ten games of the week, both straight and against the spread
It’s designed to identify the best games to watch over the weekend while still providing some analysis and predictions into the mix.
For the sake of transparency (OK, and for the sake of gloating), these were my 2023 results (I plan on giving weekly updates on this front to hold myself accountable):
2023 results
Michigan games
Straight: 12-0
Against the spread: 8-4
B1G games
Straight: 84-21
Against the spread: 62-40-3
Overall
Straight: 109-38
Against the spread: 78-64-5
I only “officially” tracked in this space through the regular season, which is why there are 12 Michigan games and not 15 of them. But since we’re all aboard the Gloating Express, my Big Ten Championship Game pick was Michigan 20, Iowa 3 (actual score: Michigan, 26-0), my Rose Bowl pick was Michigan 24, Alabama 20 (actual score: Michigan, 27-20) and my National Championship Game pick was Michigan 38, Washington 21 (actual score: Michigan, 34-13). Do I expect to go 60% against the spread in Big Ten games, 55% against the spread overall and 80% straight up in all games this fall? No. But that’s why I’m taking a victory lap now while I can.
With that out of the way, let’s get to the first viewing guide of the season. With all 18(!) Big Ten teams in action this weekend, this already-long weekly newsletter staple is about to get even longer.