Your Week 12 college football viewing guide: Breaking down/predicting Michigan vs. Rutgers, plus other key games from around the country
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Yeah, they’re still playing football games. So I guess I should still be writing about them.
It’s kind of a bummer that the excitement for the college football season has dimmed a bit in recent weeks, especially for Michigan fans, because this is actually one of the best weeks of Big Ten football this season. We’ve got two separate ranked vs. ranked matchups (Ohio State vs. Indiana and Wisconsin vs. Northwestern), including a battle between the conference’s two highest ranked teams.
And even the games pitting unranked programs against fellow unranked programs, there’s some intrigue there, too. Both Purdue-Minnesota and Iowa-Penn State are relative toss ups and should be full of intrigue.
So even though Michigan fans won’t be full of the same excitement that they were leading into their season-opening night game against Minnesota last month and a decent chunk of the fanbase seems to be battling a serious case of apathy, there’s still a lot to watch on Saturday. Here’s my viewer’s guide, plus predictions for all games mentioned.
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Week 12 Viewing Guide
This week’s Big Ten games
Michigan at Rutgers, 7:30 pm (BTN)
If you had told me a month ago that I’d very strongly be considering pretending a Rutgers upset over Michigan in a non-ironic way, I would have laughed in your face. But here I sit typing out a pro-Rutgers prediction, then backspacing it to erase it like the coward I am.
There’s really not much to say about this game or the state of this team that I haven’t already said this week leading up to the game. I see Saturday’s game as the ultimate test of pride. I don’t care how good of a job Greg Schiano has done in his short time as Rutgers’ head coach the second time around, this simply can’t be a game that a team like Michigan can lose. Really, it shouldn’t even be a game that a team like Michigan finds itself even remotely struggling with. But I do think there will be moments of true struggles on Saturday. But I also think this locker room will show enough pride to prevent Rutgers from completely a B1G State of Michigan Sweet for the 2020 season … but just barely.
Line: Michigan -12
Prediction: Michigan 28, Rutgers 27
Purdue at Minnesota, 7:30 pm (BTN — Friday night)
This line has been on quite a roller coaster this week. Purdue opened as a favorite, peaking as high as -3. Then the line shifted almost as significantly to Minnesota over the next couple of days, with the Gophers entering this morning as two-point favorites. But there seems to be some chatter coming out of Minnesota that the team is going to have a lot of COVID-related absenses again tonight, to the point that we’re 90 minutes away from kickoff as I write this and Purdue has tilted back into the favorite role.
Another reason behind the most recent shift: It sounds like we’re finally going to get to see Rondale Moore take the field this fall. That should be great, especially in a Friday night environment with more eyes on a Purdue game than there typically would be on a Saturday afternoon. There’s too much uncertainty for me to want to take either side of this bet, but for the sake of making a prediction on every game, I’ll take Purdue by a touchdown.
Line: Purdue -2
Prediction: Purdue 35, Minnesota 28
Indiana at Ohio State, noon (FOX)
I know it’s a matchup of two top-10 programs, and I know there’s a lot of excitement around the Indiana program right now. But I do not expect this to be a close game. Ohio State has the horses in the defensive secondary to slow down Ty Fryfogle — a guy that Michigan and Michigan State made look like the second coming of Calvin Johnson over the last two weeks — and I just can’t see Indiana being able to slow down Ohio State’s aerial attack. It looks like the majority of the public is taking Indiana in this one, and 20 points is a major number for a top-10 team to be getting, but I expect Ohio State to look at this game as an opportunity to make a statement. And I expect that statement to be made.
Line: Ohio State -20
Prediction: Ohio State 48, Indiana 17
Illinois at Nebraska, noon (BTN)
It’s the battle of programs that picked up their first wins of the season last weekend.
I really liked the dynamic that Isaiah Williams provided the Illinois offense last week. But it’s hard to expect him to have a similar impact with last week’s game now on tape. I expect Nebraska to make him win the game with his arm, and I don’t think he has the ability to do that.
I’m increasingly interested in tracking the progress of Luke McCaffrey as starting QB. Don’t underestimate the significance behind Scott Frost passing the baton from Adrian Martinez to McCaffrey last week. Martinez was a multi-year starter who the program had invested a lot of time into developing. Pushing him aside and giving McCaffrey the keys to the offense is a bold move, as says a lot about how highly they think of his upside within the program. I expect that upside to be on full display this weekend in a very comfortable Nebraska win.
Line: Nebraska -16
Prediction: Nebraska 41, Illinois 21
Wisconsin at Northwestern, 3:30 (abc)
I know I should be respecting Northwestern more than I have been this season, but I still have a very hard time seeing the Wildcats keeping this one within single digits. Wisconsin showed how dangerous it can be through the air in its season opener and it showed more of its traditional attack last week when it carved Michigan up on the ground. That true threat to attack on either level brings a new dynamic to that offense, and makes things tough for opposing defenses. I’m interested to see how much more Wisconsin utilizes Jalen Berger this week. He looks to be the program’s next big thing at RB, and after not getting any touches in their opener, he got 15 carries and multiple targets in the passing game against Michigan. If that trend continues, this could have the making of a coming-out party for the talented freshman.
Give me the Badgers by a couple TDs.
Line: Wisconsin -7.5
Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Northwestern 17
Iowa at Penn State, 3:30 (BTN)
You wouldn’t know from reading anything by the national media, but Penn State — yes, the Penn State team that entered the season in the top 10 — is 0-4 this fall. That’s zero wins, four losses.
My small brain keeps expecting that to change every week, but every time I pick Penn State to win, the Nittany Lions end up losing.
So … with that in mind, I’ll go ahead and take Penn State to win this week, too.
Don’t call me a martyr. But with it being close to the holidays, I do accept gift cards as a means of you saying “Thank you.”
Line: Iowa -2.5
Prediction: Penn State 27, Iowa 24
Three non-Big Ten games worth watching
Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina, noon (ESPN2)
Liberty gets a lot of ink for its dream season, but Coastal Carolina is putting together a similarly impressive run — and it’s actually happening at a school that isn’t a joke of an institution coached by a bad guy.
How this one plays out will rest heavily on the status of Appalachian State QB Zac Thomas, who appears to be a true game-time decision. Appalachian State’s identity this season is its defense — it’s one of the few teams in America this season that hasn’t given up more than 21 points in a game this fall: 20, 17, 21, 17, 13, 17, 13 — but even if its defense slows down Coastal Carolina’s impressive, diverse offensive attack, that won’t mean much if the Mountaineers can’t put points on the board.
Most expected Coastal Carolina’s offensive identity to stop and end with RB CJ Marable this fall, but WR Jaivon Heiligh has shown himself to be one of the country’s most consistently dynamic wideouts in the country. I like Coastal Carolina’s chances to remain unbeaten coming out of the weekend, but not enough to give up five points to Appalachian State, especially considering how well the Mountaineers have done on the defensive side of the ball all season long. Coastal Carolina wins, App. State covers.
Line: Coastal Carolina -5
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 24, Appalachian State 21
Kansas State at Iowa State, 4 pm (FOX)
Do I really have to explain why Michigan fans should want to watch Iowa State’s game this weekend?
Curiosity/scouting aside, though, this is a game that carries some pretty major Big 12 Championship Game implications. Iowa State has a half-game lead over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 standings. There are three teams one game back — with Kansas State being one of them.
So this is a chance for Iowa State to create some separation from the back, or to make it an even bigger logjam at the top. I feel confident in it being the former and not the latter, but Kansas State might be the only team that can give Iowa State a run for its money when it comes to playing spoiler for other Big 12 schools’ seasons over the past handful of years. Same deal here. I’ll take Iowa State to win, but a double-digit margin of victory is a tough ask in a game like this.
Line: Iowa State -11
Prediction: Iowa State 31, Kansas State 24
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, 7:30 pm (abc)
If you’re watching Iowa State-Kansas State for Big 12 standings implications, you better not skip the main event in the time slot that follows. The annual Bedlam matchup between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is a consistently entertaining rivalry good for memorable moments, big plays and at times, major upsets.
Basically everyone expected Oklahoma State’s strength to be its offense. QB Spencer Sanders, RB Chuba Hubbard and WR Tylan Wallace gave the team legitimate stars — or at least people with the potential to be stars — at each of the three major offensive positions. And while its offense hasn’t necessarily been disappointing this season, most of Oklahoma State’s success this season can actually be attributed to its defense, which ranks tops in the conference in a number of key categories.
Do I think the Cowboys have it in them to derail an Oklahoma team that has really gotten it together after a tough start to the season? It’s possible. I’d potentially be more willing to go with an upset pick if Oklahoma State was getting a true home-field advantage in this one. But I have to ride the Sooners here. Spencer Rattler has settled in since being benched for part of the Texas-OU game. In the three games that have followed, Oklahoma has won by more than 35 points per game. And the recent return of Rhamondre Stevenson seems like an underreported/underrated storyline within the Sooner program on a national level. Lincoln Riley’s offense is far more deadly when there’s a legitimate running threat to have to account for, and Oklahoma has that for the first time this season now that he’s back from suspension. That’s great timing for Oklahoma as it takes on the surprisingly stout Cowboy defense. I think Oklahoma walks away with the win and the cover.
Line: Oklahoma -7
Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Oklahoma State 31
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