Week 4 viewing guide: Breaking down/predicting Michigan vs. USC, plus other key games from around the country
This post is locked and can be read by premium subscribers only.
I called this weekend’s Michigan-USC game the Wolverines’ biggest game of the season both on the radio and in writing earlier this week. As the week has gone on, my fear of this coming across as hyperbole has disappeared and I’ve just become further validated in that opinion as I think of the two very different directions this season could head, with Saturday afternoon’s game being the very clear fork in the road.
Lose and you’re 2-2 and potentially out of the top 25 altogether, just four games removed from a National Championship. There are still multiple road games against ranked opponents on your schedule, plus a matchup with top-10 Oregon and a rematch of last year's National Championship Game against Washington — not to mention matchups against currently undefeated potential spoilers like Indiana, Illinois and Michigan. Your ceiling for 2024 suddenly starts looking like what a lot of folks’ predicted floors were just four short weeks ago.
Win, though, and a near disastrous start to 2024 is pretty much corrected in the span of three hours. You suddenly have the most impressive conference win of the season so far and your lone loss is to the No. 1 team in America. You're likely not an underdog again until November and a College Football Playoff berth returns to being spoken of like probability rather than a pipe dream.
It’s wild to think both of those two paths that seem like polar opposites are both just 60 minutes away based on which team takes the field on Saturday. But here we are.
Below the paywall jump, I’ll have my breakdown and prediction of Michigan’s massive game against USC, plus the following:
My choices for the three biggest Big Ten games of the week that don’t involve Michigan, including predictions straight and against the spread
My choices for the three biggest non-Big Ten games of the weekend, including predictions straight and against the spread
Rapid-fire predictions for all other Big Ten games, both straight and against the spread.
My perfect mark of correctly picking Michigan games both straight and against the spread came to an end after an annoying Arkansas State backdoor cover in a deceiving, garbage-time aided 28-18 final that was once 28-3 in Michigan’s favor. Such is life in the world of non-conference games, though.
On the positive side of things, I’m now 9-0 straight and 7-2 against the spread with picks of my three marquee non-Big Ten games each week so far this season. There are some fun ones this weekend, so I’m hoping to shine a light on some of those while providing a few good picks in the process.
Here’s the in-progress record for my Michigan/B1G/overall predictions in 2024, both straight and against the spread:
2024 results
Michigan games
Straight: 3-0
Against the spread: 2-1
B1G games
Straight: 38-8
Against the spread: 23-22-1
Overall
Straight: 47-8
Against the spread: 30-24-1
If you’re not a premium subscriber and want to gain accessed to all content on the newsletter, you can explore various subscription plans below:
Now let’s get to the picks.