Scott Bell/RedditCFB recap: Thoughts on realignment, recruiting, NIL, 2022 expectations and more
This post is unlocked and available for all readers.
Last week, I joined the good folks over at @RedditCFB to be a part of their Live Weekly College Football Talk Show. We had over 1,000 folks tuning in and there was a lot of good discussion about college football in general, but with a strong emphasis on Michigan football.
Here’s an audio copy of the interview, in case you’d like to listen. I’ve also attached a transcript of the chat if you prefer a text format of the Q&A with the three hosts — but it’s 8,500-plus words, so for the sake of saving trees, I highly suggest not printing it out.
Transcript
What are your thoughts on the latest wave of realignment and what does the addition of USC and UCLA means for the Big Ten? Did it surprise you?
“It was both a surprise and not a surprise, if that makes any sense. About a year ago when Texas and OU made the first seismic jump over and joined the SEC, I wrote in my newsletter that I thought the rebuttal that made sense for the Big Ten was to try to target USC and some other Pac-12 schools. So in that sense, I do think it was logical. But the timing of it made it pretty surprising — just kind of out of nowhere.
It reminded me a lot of a year ago with Texas and OU. The timing of it and how quickly it got across the finish line once it sort of leaked was both surprising and impressive.
It’s weird to think of what the college football landscape is really going to look like in 2024 and 2025, with all these staples — these institutions that we’re so used to being in one spot — going to be somewhere else. But in terms of it being a chess move, I really do think it makes sense for the Big Ten.”
Which school is the better “fit” for the Big Ten: UCLA or USC? And what comes next?
“I think they're both pretty comparable. USC has been a higher achiever in football recently. But UCLA is a pretty strong institution across the board, too. It does well in a lot of sports, just hasn't necessarily been that that football power that that a lot of people grew up with them being. So I think they both kind of make sense. This makes sense for the Big Ten in terms of academic prowess and obviously TV sets out West — the LA Connection and then just overall high performance in sports.
They just really sort of seemed like the best options available.
The “next” box to check is Notre Dame, which has kind of been in a decades-long flirtation with the Big Ten.”
You mentioned the decades long flirtation with the Notre Dame-Big Ten matchup. Trying to draw them into the conference, one thing that's always struck me as odd is just the huge geography of all of this. Obviously, when you're in the Big Ten, you have huge rivalries with instate rivals, next state rivals, same region rivals. And now you're bringing in two powers that are two completely different time zones away from you. Does that affect anything on the ability to make them feel like they're actually part of your conference? Or are we going to have this wave of, “Well, you're technically kind of part of equal to us…”
“Yeah, I don't think you can put the toothpaste back in the tube here. Once you start getting your West Virginias in the Big 12 and even what the Big Ten did in previous realignments with Rutgers and Maryland, I think any sort of geographic logic or the sanctity of having college sports being this regional thing just kind of fell to the wayside with money and TV deals taking precedence.
I wouldn't be surprised if the next iteration of realignment, the Big Ten is adding some more teams out West so there can be a little bit of geographic camaraderie. You're going to have a couple of the other Pac-12 schools in there, and you can maybe pair them with the current Big Ten teams that are Westernmost, like you get your Iowas, your Nebraskas, your Wisconsins. But geography is just not going to be a deciding factor when it comes to realignment anymore. It's just so much of a money-driven thing that that everything else kind of takes a back seat.”
Does this geography have any kind of effect on recruiting? Does it open up the California market more for the Big Ten, or is that kind of like a neutral/all things wash out consideration when it comes to national recruiting?
“I think it’s kind of a wait and see, but my first inclination is it's probably going to be a negative for a school like Michigan because Michigan has traditionally gotten some some pretty pretty good players out from out in California, and I think that selling point is maybe they don't want to play in the Pac-12. Maybe they don't like the lack of stability there. And then Michigan sort of offers that alternative. So now if you're an elite player in California or out West, you can still play with your “hometown school” — USC, UCLA — where you might not have had conference allegiance sort of being a be a selling point, and now all of a sudden it's not a negative. Now it's an even playing field.
So much of the recruiting landscape is changing, lots of moving parts with NIL and everything, so maybe that ends up being kind of a secondary concern. But I have a hard time seeing realignment being a positive in terms of the recruiting footprint for a school like Michigan.”
Michigan just lost a huge recruit in Dante Moore to the Oregon Ducks. I know the Michigan fan base isn't thrilled with that. What are your thoughts on that particular issue?
“I mean, yeah, from Michigan standpoint, it sucks. There’s no real sugarcoating that. At the same time, yes, there's the geographic proximity. And yes, Michigan was in on him super young as a middle schooler. It's someone they've sunk a lot of time into. Jim Harbaugh had a personal connection with them. But when you're dealing with a player of Dante Moore's stature, a surefire five-star and to some, the No. 1 overall QB in the class — pretty much a top-10 guy regardless of position. Those are the people that are going to be national recruits and they're the ones that are going to get these great NIL offers. You look at a school like Oregon and ties to Nike, Phil Knight and and things like that. These these types of schools are going to be able to make very, very enticing offers. And you I can't blame someone like Dante Moore for doing what he thinks is best for him and his future and his family.
It's not a Michigan unique phenomenon. You're seeing other national guys go elsewhere. But it does seem to sting extra for a fan base like Michigan because you have him in your backyard. You have another high profile quarterback like CJ Carr go to Notre Dame because you decide to put all your eggs in the Dante Moore basket and now all of a sudden you have these two blue-chip quarterbacks in your backyard and they're both going to other schools. So it's tough. It's been an offseason where Michigan fans have been very frustrated by the momentum or lack thereof surrounding the program and the recruiting. So I think all those things sort of just create this perfect storm of frustration and those frustrations are going to be even more amplified than they would be normally.”
There’s been a lot of talk about Jim Harbaugh and what he’s done at Michigan since he was hired. Then finally, in 2021, he gets over the hump, was able to beat Ohio State, and of course makes it all the way to the to the CFP. What do you think that that sets the expectations that for the 2022 season, how is that going to impact everyone's perception of him? You know, if he has a major regression like we saw with Coach O, is he right back in the hot seat? Or has he been managed to buy himself some time to say, look, I've shown we can get there. Just be patient with me and we'll get back?
“The Jim Harbaugh situation is just really unique. There's not a lot of situations like that in college football. I think part of that is because he's a very good coach. There are very few coaches that have had success at the college and NFL level that can basically command interviews at the NFL level if they decide to look around. But also, he's one of the few coaches that would be open about interest in doing that and actually just do it. He's always just kind of gone to the beat of his own drum and that's going to make him stand out.
So this past offseason was incredibly unique in Michigan. Fans are kind of going through the emotions of it because there aren't a lot of similar situations around the nation where you can compare it to. At the same time, the year before, it was very weird for Jim Harbaugh to get a massive public pay cut and and kind of just have to sit there and take it. And I think that's some of the uniqueness with Michigan, too — that sort of institutional hubris that comes with it.
So I think both sides kind of understand that they're in the best situation. Michigan's not going to find a better coach than Jim Harbaugh. Jim Harbaugh just led him to the freaking College Football Playoff last year. And Jim Harbaugh — especially after this offseason when he openly tested NFL waters on the heels of a great season — I think he understands that at his age and the way the NFL is trending with what they're looking for in head coaches, I think the NFL ship has probably sailed.
So they've both kind of had their offseason of flirtations and now I think they both kind of know what they have. It's almost like the boyfriend trying to dump the girlfriend because you think he can do better. The girlfriend trying to dump the boyfriend because things they can do better. And then they both kind of realize that they're the best they can do.
It's going to be awkward, but if there's someone that can thrive in the awkward, it's Jim Harbaugh. So I think the expectation for this season, I think Michigan's going to enter as a top-10 team and if they don't have a top-10 season, it's a disappointment. You mentioned hot seat. I don't think we're going to be in a hot-seat sort of situation unless we're looking at a 7-5 or worse-type season. But with what Michigan's bringing back particularly on offense I don't see this being a team that only wins six or seven games. I think you're probably looking at the second-best team in the Big Ten, and I think Ohio State is the team to beat despite what happened in in Ann Arbor last season. But if this ends up being a 10-2 season or an 11-1 season, that's a good season.”
I apologize, Scott, I gotta tease you a little bit for this because I was reading the AMA that you did on the Michigan subreddit where you were a little bit skeptical about Jim Harbaugh being Michigan's coach heading in the last season. I think there were a fair number of people who were skeptical of whether or not the program had stagnated a bit. But then here they go beat Ohio State. Get the conference championship and get to the playoff where you know they lost. So I guess where are you right now on how long you'd like Harbaugh to be at the program? Obviously this season I think undoubtedly no one is going to say that, but I mean, where do you see his long term prospects? What would he have to continue to do in your mind?
“I think avoiding the disaster years is key. If you look at Harbaugh's tenure, I do think 2020 looks more and more like an outlier. And you talk about that AMA and what happened coming out of the 2020 season. It's very hard to have just a huge negative momentum surrounding your program and turning it around. And for Michigan to go 2-4 in 2020 and to lose the type of players they lost to the draft. It it looked pretty dire. To turn that around and not only have a good season like they did in 2021, but a great season, I think it’s a testament to the stability that Jim Harbaugh can bring to this program and has brought to this program.
I think a lot of people forget about the seven years that Michigan had leading into Harbaugh taking. Most Michigan fans in here know that all too well, but what this program did or probably better put — what they didn't do — under Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke was pretty damning, especially for a proud program like Michigan. So since Harbaugh's been here it's been a program that has been consistently really good and in last year we got to see great. I don't think it's necessarily fair to expect a College Football Playoff return. Because only four teams are getting in there and perennially you're looking at Ohio State being a favorite and you're looking at the Alabamas and Clemsons and Georgias of the world populating that a lot. But I do think it's a fair expectation for Michigan to be in that conversation and to be heading into November with a chance to be one of those premier teams in college football.”
You spoke a little bit about the stability that Jim Harbaugh brings, but I'm curious to know what we're going to be looking like for assistant coaches heading into this season because Josh Gattis, he took the job at Miami. Mike McDonald, he's back in the NFL. You have two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. What's the stability that Jim Harbaugh is going to have to bring to make sure that his new coordinators have similar successes to what we saw last year?
“I think if there's if there's something Jim Harbaugh has earned the benefit of doubt in, it has been his coaching staffs. He has routinely made good decisions in terms of bringing new people in and making adjustments when people leave or are elevated. I think what they did to keep as many of their offensive assistants, particularly in the wake of Josh Gattis leaving, was really good there. There are obviously some Michigan fans that are upset at some of the lack of recruiting that some of those offensive assistants are kind of bringing. Sherrone Moore is someone that kind of earned his reputation by being a great recruiter and now that he's taking on a coordinator role and with more on-field responsibilities, you're not seeing as much of those recruiting fruits of his labor right now. I also don't think Mike Hart's bringing in some of the recruits that a lot of people thought he would coming back to Michigan — being a charismatic guy, coaching for a school he's passionate about.
But when it comes to the fall and they're back on the field and they're scheming and game planning I think Michigan was one of the better development schools in the country last year. And recently. I really liked a lot of the game plans we saw on both sides of the ball last fall. So yes, Mike McDonald's gone. I think that's going to be a tough act to follow on the defensive end. But you got a replacement that's pretty much a Mike McDonald starter kit that's coming from a similar background with the same type of experience and familiarity with the scheme that they're looking for. I think if you look at it from a piece by piece basis, it's hard not to think that Michigan staff will be a positive, particularly when you're looking at on-field production.”
Talking about the QB situation in Michigan. You know you mentioned losing out on CJ Carr and on Dante Dante Moore with them going to Notre Dame and to Oregon, respectively. Cade McNamara has a lot of confidence I think is a safe thing to say. How much pressure does that put on him? And you know, if if there are some struggles or something if he doesn't progress the way that a lot of fans maybe would hope to see, what's the status for JJ McCarthy? Obviously two very talented quarterbacks that are already in the system and familiar with it. So maybe that kind of takes away some of the hit of losing those two highly rated QB prospects?
“Yeah, I think this is turning into a recurring theme with what I'm saying, but Michigan is a very unique situation and it does a lot of things where you're just not going to see it at a lot of other places in the country. I think the quarterback situation is very much like that old saying “If you have two quarterbacks, you have zero.” It’s a commonly accepted mantra because that sort of rotation just doesn't seem to work out at a lot of places. But if you look at last season and obviously Cade McNamara had more of those snaps weighted toward him than J McCarthy, and it wasn't necessarily a a 50-50 split there, but if you look at how those two quarterbacks reacted to each other, they were genuinely being great teammates, helping them out, being happy for the other person's success, and I think that was a testament to the culture at Michigan. If this is going to be another successful season, it's going to be another sort of culture-centric thing.
One thing working in Michigan's favor: recent reports that JJ McCarthy is going to be bringing in $2 million in NIL and obviously Cade McNamara's got plenty of deals himself so. As a fanbase, Michigan has a lot of people frustrated with the school not using NIL to recruit. But it is sort of being a retention play. You're seeing that in football with the quarterbacks, you saw that in basketball with Hunter Dickinson, who basically came out right and said, “hey, I would have left if I if I didn't have a great NIL deal.” And when you talk about the long-term health at quarterback for Michigan, even beyond the McNamara/McCarthy era, if Michigan's still going to have this NIL strategy that's focused more on current players than prospective players, I do see Michigan being a player in the transfer portal bringing in guys who may not have played their first year when they expected to — maybe even a Dante Moore or CJ Carr-type.
Michigan's always going to do things quite a bit differently than other schools. And that's just kind of how things are. But I do think it's a program that's probably going to find a comfort zone, and it might find ways to leverage NIL to its advantage. It's just not happening the route that a lot of fans want and at the pace and quickness that a lot of fans want.”
Michigan definitely benefited in the past from being able to bring in some transfer players that were unhappy or were in some rough situations at their previous schools and they had a lot of success there in Michigan, and I think if we look at other schools over the past two years now seeing a player that is as highly touted JJ McCarthy stick around, despite being behind Cade McNamara on the depth chat and then being relatively close in terms of eligibility years. A lot of times, we would see a player like McCarthy bolt for another school where he has a chance to be a starter. So yeah, I think you're right that it does say something for the approach to Michigan's taking and how well it's working. Being able to keep around a talented player like that instead of just losing him to the portal.
“Yeah. And I think you’re going to see McCarthy with a bigger piece of the pie this year in terms of quarterback snaps. I think you see Cade McNamara starting the first game still and I do think there are a lot of traits and contributions he makes that that are pretty underrated because the fan base is clamoring for McCarthy because of what he showed ina lot of the opportunities he got as a freshman. But you can’t really argue with the gifts and the skills that someone like JJ McCarthy has and there are very, very few quarterbacks on Michigan’s schedule that can do anything close to what McCarthy has shown he can do in the limited snap counts he got during his freshman year.
Again, we're pretty limited, but you look at some of the big touchdown passes he's had in tough environments, the things he's done with his legs. I still laugh looking at his blocking in the Big Ten Championship game on that long Blake Corum touchdown run. Quarterbacks aren't supposed to do that. And this is a special player and I do think the longer he is on campus the more he's going to force his way onto the field. I think most people understand that you can't squander a special athlete like that.”
So going towards NIL — I know you can't get away from it now and it's a major, major factor of college sports now and forever. But what could you give us? A bit of a deeper in-depth look at at what Michigan's approach is? I know that's been somewhat contentious among Wolverines fans, particularly as they try to figure out what could be potential factors to somewhat. I mean, for a team that just came out of the College Football Playoff somewhat disappointing recruiting with some of these big losses, but I'm sure certainly solid recruiting across the board being a blue blood, but how is NIL a part of that and and what is this overarching approach and what should we be seeing? What will we be seeing as Michigan matures in its approach to NIL?
“Yeah, there's a lot of negative sentiment around NIL at Michigan. I think some of it is a little misguided, but I think largely it’s a fair response because I think, especially if you're judging based off potential, Michigan is a place with a ton of fans, a ton of influential donors, a ton of affluence, a ton of really passionate fans that want to do their part to help make this team better, and you look around and you see what Ohio State’s doing you look in in terms of peers. And then you look in the South at what the SEC is doing, and it's like it's like two different games. Michigan had a really hard time mobilizing. And also I think part of it is just the marketing and the messaging around it. Jim Harbaugh is going out of his way saying “Hey, this is going to be a transformational approach rather than a transactional one.” And while I think that pitch might work with a couple people, I think you are basically pushing away a lot of high-profile athletes who are going to get this bag if they sign at another school that's not trying to pretend that they're above this or playing by different rules.
Michigan has people that are connecting people to NIL. There have been some mobilizing efforts and the most recent sort of rallying thing about a month ago I touched on a bit and my newsletter. There is this NIL fund that's being put together. And it's significant. There are some names tied to it that I've spoken to and there's good sourcing that I've gotten surrounding it where there are people that are ready to be serious about it. But at the same time, there are still instances of Michigan getting in its own way where it's almost like it's having a marketing approach to its NIL that's trying to dig itself in a hole without really needing to have to do it.
Michigan is definitely preferring to funnel its NIL money to existing players that are already on campus and not doing it in terms of an enticement to get recruits to sign. And no matter how noble they'll want to feel about it and how much they want to pat themselves on the back, that's not what most schools are doing. And it's going to be tough to sort of fight that talent imbalance that Michigan’s approach is going to yield — unless Michigan the program finds a way to be more consistently productive with its NIL approach.”
So one question I do have. You've been based in Texas now for about a dozen years, just with your professional career. And so I assume you've got a sense of a lot of things because Texas is being now the crossroads of the SEC and Big 12. What's been the feeling about conference realignment that you've seen just among those in the state of Texas?
“Yeah, I've been here for about every major season of realignment and they've all been very unique. There was the near-bolting to the Pac-12 back in the day, we obviously have A&M leaving the SEC. Last year's big move with Texas and OU and honestly, Texas A&M’s underhanded attempts to try to stop that at the at the last second.
There's been a lot of movement, and this is sort of the heart of everything. I think the next big domino in terms of here in Texas is who's going to sort of win the battle between the Big 12 and the Pac-12 at who's going to not be the “worst of the Power 5.” It seemed like the Pac-12 maybe 3-4 years ago had the momentum over the Big 12. When you're able to poach a school like Colorado from a peer conference like the Big 12, that's a huge win perception-wise. But the Pac-12 in terms of the money they've been getting for their Member institutions, the lack of success with the Pac-12 Network, I think it's really putting itself in that No. 5 out of five position and and it's going to be tough to recover now, especially that you're losing USC and UCLA.
So I know the Big 12 has its new Commissioner. I think they're trying to be proactive trying to use this momentum to their advantage and bring in some of those Pac-12 schools right now, and it's going to be interesting if the Pac-12's kind of able to weather the storm and and stay afloat. Or if this really ends up being the end of the Pac-12 in terms of being having any sort of real relevance in the grand scheme of the college football landscape.”
When we're talking about realignment, it seems like it's going to be a very clear Big 2. The Big Ten and the SEC are going to be the two conferences that have the most money. The most negotiating power. What is it going to take for the Big Ten to have a stronger presence than the SEC? Are they going to be considered equal after all these moves, or is the Big Ten going to have to go even further in showing some kind of additional opportunity for them to get a leg up in front of the SEC?
“I think it kind of depends on who's the one doing the judging. The Big Ten has held its own from the SEC in terms of revenue. I think the Big Ten Network has been been pretty much an unmitigated success and has really sort of elevated the Big Ten ahead of the ACC and the Big 12 and the Pac-12 when the SEC was sort of that top dog. I think the Big Ten has really been able to do well with revenue and these schools are doing a good job of reinvesting that revenue and becoming more relevant in terms of on-field performance, too.
You look at schools like Michigan State and Penn State, who just made huge investments into their head coaches this past season and that's big in terms of perception when you're looking at thosecoaches potentially being poached by SEC schools. The Big Ten has always been in a good spot in terms of attendance, gates, excitement, fan interest around these sports, and I think the next big step to see if it's going to “be on par with the SEC” is winning more championships. Because that's that's what has separated the SEC and what has really elevated them as “the top conference” over the past decade or two. Because you've had Alabama's rise, you also see what George is doing. You’ve had other people go up and down too, so getting more consistent championship-type performances by schools that aren't Ohio State is what the Big Ten needs and that includes Michigan showing that last year wasn't just a flash in the pan.
Maybe out West, this is when that next wave is going to do it, because a school like USC may be the third best school that's prepared to sort of rise to that level.”
Historically, you know the Big Ten has been right there with the SEC in terms of dollars and actually several seasons it's been higher and current projections are that it's going to be be more valuable for teams than the SEC. Do you think there's a specific reason for the disconnect between the amount of money the schools have been getting and the success we've been seeing on the field in various sports in terms of actually being able to go out and win championships other than the SEC has a Nick Saban?
“Yes. And this might be a little oversimplification and not necessarily accurate across the board, but I think it's largely a culture thing. I think Big Ten schools have some football powerhouses there, but there aren't necessarily “football factories” outside of Ohio State. There are these institutions that care a lot about academics and put a lot of weight into that. And again, I'm not completely discounting these SEC schools in terms of their mission as academic institutions. But you're seeing football prioritized a lot more, and I think that's just a larger cultural thing. And Idon't think that's something that's going to change overnight.
I think when you're seeing some of these realignment-type moves for schools like USC, UCLA — these these two highly regarded institutions that are going to change and become Big Ten member schools because of sports. Maybe that is going to signal a shift of athletics being weighted more and more at these institutions. But if you're looking at the biggest difference between the SEC and the Big Ten, I think the Cultural football factory emphasis on sports is probably the biggest thing that separates them, and I think that's the driving force with with a lot of these Southern schools right now still.”
So heading into next season, obviously, Michigan returns some talent and then has to replace some very key talent on defense. But with some of these new players that are going to be stepping up or new players coming into the program, who seems to be in your mind the most promising? I know, obviously from Virginia they have Olusegun Oluwatimi, the Rimington finalist going on to that already strong offensive line. I know Phil Steele's really high on the Michigan offensive line. Which players do you think are going to be the big ones to step up or at least early on in the season?
“Yeah, I think identity-wise this is going to be a different team than last year because last year's team was largely driven by Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo and a lot of the pressure the defense was able to get. Dax Hill was a very unique player and Michigan utilized him well, so that's three first round-type talents. Obviously Ojabo dropped a little bit because of his injury, but this was a team that was driven by its defense. I think this fall, it's going to be different.
Basically every piece of Michigan's offense is is back from last season outside of Hassan Haskins and a couple members of that offensive line. And then you actually return Ronnie Bell, who Michigan lost midway through its first game of the season and he's the most talented wide receiver on that team. So if Blake Corum can replace Hassan Haskins and if michigan can show that it can utilize a unique talent like Donovan Edwards — and they showed a lot of flashes of doing that toward the latter stages of last season — I think this is going to be a pretty dynamic offense like we talked about a little bit earlier.
There are staff changes we don't necessarily know what we're going to be looking at in terms of play calling, and I think the first month of the season, you're probably not going to see an incredibly dynamic offense because it's going to be a team that's going to play it really close to the vest. Michigan has a pretty easy opening month of the season in terms of its schedule. I think it's probably a good thing, especially when it comes to the defense where you're going to be breaking in a lot of new players at key positions. So it's going to be a different Michigan team than it was last year, but I do think a lot of the core principles that made the team successful last year are still there. It's just whether everything's going to gel together this fall as well as it did last fall.”
Outside of the Ohio State game, what's going to be the most critical game for Michigan to play and win this year?
“That's the Michigan State game with without question. Say what you want about Michigan State, but you have to give that program a ton of credit for what they're able to do each year. And in that game. The emphasis they're putting toward it, and the momentum they're creating around that program. I like to yuck it up and have jokes as much as anyone, but what Mel Tucker's done there in a two-year period is incredibly impressive, and I think you're seeing a lot of momentum around that program this offseason.
I still think in terms of talent on that team, it’s still a tier or two below your Michigans and your Ohio States, but that is 100% a team that can beat Michigan and that is a game that Michigan without a doubt has to win this fall. Coming on the heels of two straight losses, because obviously it means a lot in the standings. It's a game in the Big Ten East, which is probably the most competitive division in college football right now. But it's also just huge for perception both in-state and nationally, and if you lose a third straight game to Michigan State, that is not good for for a number of reasons.”
I know you have a decent following of Michigan State fans on Twitter. What's your relationship like with that? They seem to follow you for various reasons.
“It's fun. And the ones that make it fun are the ones that I kind of keep around. I've done a much better job in recent years making sure it's fun banter. I don't engage with the people that take things super personally and don't make it fun. But part of what makes college football so much fun really is like the bantering element of things — the tribal nature of these fan bases and and just how unique it is as a sport.
If you could remove all pro sports at once and tell me it would preserve college sports or even just college football and college basketball, and everything else gets wiped off. Or I have to say goodbye to college football and college basketball. But I get all pro sports. I would be waving goodbye to pro sports without without any hesitation. I just think it's unique. It's fun. There's a sense of ownership when it comes to your schools and feeling like there’s — I don’t know, it’s hard to explain — but it’s just so unique and it's fun and the people that can make it fun are worth keeping around. It's just so much more fun so watching a Michigan football game on Twitter with Michigan fans. It's entertaining. There are a ton of really unique and funny people that that enhance the viewing experience. But I'd be lying if I said some of that wasn't due to the Michigan State and the Ohio State fans on there too, and it's great to have ribbing and to be able to dunk on people. As long as you can handle being dunked on when, when it's your time in in in the dunk line.”
You mentioned that the Big Ten East is probably the most competitive division in FBS, and I think in past discussions we pretty much agreed. You know we had a Rutgers fan that asked, how do you succeed in that spot if you’re Rutgers outside of convincing the Big Ten to add,like UConn and UMass to the East, maybe? Or hope the divisions go away? One of the two. But who do you see coming out of the Big Ten West as the potential challenger? If Michigan manages to make it back to the conference championship game?
“That's a good question. I think Wisconsin's kind of the safe and boring response. But that's probably what I would say if I'm trying to make a safe bet. I know Iowa still returns a decent amount of people, but I’m not necessarily blown away by that roster. I think Nebraska is a better team than a lot of people gave them credit for. Obviously their record last year was far from sterling, but if you look at their points scored versus points allowed and you compare it to a team like Michigan State, who ended up as a top-10 team, and they're pretty comparable in terms of their performance in Big Ten games. It's just Michigan State won a lot of close games and in Nebraska lost a lot of them. And obviously Michigan State needs to get credit for learning how to win those close games. And Nebraska still needs to be on that tier down there until they show they can actually win some of them.
But in a division like the Big Ten West where there isn't that dominant team sort of looming there, Wisconsin's probably my pick. It's a conference where I really wouldn't be surprised if it's any of those three, maybe even a Purdue or Minnesota. Like I said, there's anyone that can really swoop in. Maybe Northwestern has one of their seasons where once every five years they turn into a werewolf and become really dangerous, too.”
We've talked about Michigan State a little bit. Is Penn State still in that same conversation of that type of elite team that we should be seeing in a New Year’s Six/in the playoff conversation? How do they kind of stack up against the Michigan and Michigan States of the world right now?
“A little bit ago, I sort of talked about how Michigan State — I feel like at least talent-wise, they’re still a tier or two below your Michigans and your Ohio States. But I think they have found their way onto that same tier as as Penn State and I think that battle between those two for the No. 3 team in the division we kind of saw that last year with Michigan State winning that snow game against Penn State in that last week of the season, I could see that being a similar situation again this fall. I'm on record saying that James Franklin is largely overrated. I think you're seeing him a little less than those top ten lists after a couple straight 4-5 seasons in Big Ten play the last couple of years.
But I think Penn State is still living very heavily on the reputation of that 2016 season and people in here or anyone that's subscribed to my newsletter or follows me on Twitter knows that I've been screaming from the rooftop about that 2016 season and just how fortunate Penn State was, but that that's sort of that Saquon Barkley year because of that blocked field goal and the touchdown against Ohio State that suddenly gave James Franklin that Big Ten title through a tiebreaker and and all of a sudden put him on this pedestal, but you look at the 5-6 years that have followed and it's a lot of like “fine, good-type seasons,” but it's not looking like an elite team to me.
For him to get the raise he did to stay there this past season despite being 8-10 in Big Ten play the last two seasons I think shows that probably the person that deserves the most praise associated with that program is James Franklin's agent right now.”
These big, mega deals of 10 years and obscene numbers next to them — I mean, we saw Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to go down to LSU for a huge check. We saw Lincoln Riley do the same thing with now-Big Ten member USC when he left Oklahoma. But we saw this with Mel Tucker and even Jim Harbaugh, you know, deservedly, after getting to the playoffs and winning the Big Ten Championship and all that, he also saw a new massive extension when it comes to this kind of trend. What exactly should we have as the expectations for these big mega deals?
“Yeah, it's going to be really interesting to see to see a couple years from now, because — and I'm really not saying this in jest because I've been playing nice this whole conversation when it comes to Michigan State — but if there is one person that made a lot of people rich this past season, it's Mel Tucker. Because once he got that fully guaranteed $95 million deal, that got a lot of coaches agents on the phone. Because, yes, what Michigan State did last year was impressive, but if your two years are finishing 7th out of 7 in the Big Ten East and then 3rd out of 7 in the Big Ten East and that's going to earn you that level of contract, then that's going to get James Franklin's coach or agent on the line to the powers that be at Penn State and say “I need that contract” and it's going to get Brian Kelly in there and it's going to get Lincoln Riley in there and a lot of coaches are going to get rich based on that.
And I'm a firm believer in you get paid what the market bears and if these coaches make this then they're worth that. But it's going to be really interesting when we see the first coach or the first couple of coaches that got these guaranteed mega deals fall on hard times, maybe 2-3 years into these 10-year deals. Like I mentioned earlier, when momentum goes bad, it's one of those things where these programs need to be proactive to turn these things around. But now instead of paying, reaching out to donors and getting $12 million to pay out a hefty buyout, these buyouts are going to be looking like $75 million instead. So it's been interesting to see the front end of this bubble, but it's going to be interesting to see when that bubble pops when some of these programs fall in hard times, too.”
For a team like Michigan, you're not necessarily having to keep up with the Joneses. In the historical aspect, you've been the Joneses. But as we've seen these mega deals come in and we've seen arms races with facilities, what's the donor structure like at Michigan right now to keep up with that on top of NIL — whether that's for recruiting or retention or otherwise? What does the money situation look like with these big money donors?
“Yeah, the money's there. Obviously Michigan's got Stephen Ross who gave $200 million for the Business School, which again sort of shows Michigan balancing some of those funds between academics and athletics. But even with a smaller piece of that funneling to athletics than some of the other schools we’ve mentioned, there's plenty of donors with affluence that are are happy to give money. I just think Michigan — it's going to have plenty of great facilities and in the past that helped with recruiting and in some ways it's still is going to — but the name of the game in recruiting right now is NIL and and a lot of schools are, or at least people surrounding these schools, are getting their donors to filter that money to acquire talent. And that is not something that Michigan is prioritizing right now.
I think Michigan is going to retain a lot of talent once it’s on campus, and I think if it can start doing a better job telling that story of “Hey, Michigan's got two quarterbacks on its roster right now that are probably millionaires because of NIL.” Then maybe some of that will start resonating with recruiting. But Michigan is not prioritizing those funds to help with recruiting like a lot of its peer competition is doing and I do think that is going to continue to hurt when it comes to acquiring talent. And until something changes, whether it's on Michigan's end or around the NIL bubble in general, it’ll continue to do so.”
You are in Texas, so you there's some pretty huge amounts of money being tossed by some of those programs out there. … How, from your observations as a reporter in Texas, is it that substantially different from what you see from those those mega programs down there versus what gets done at a program like Michigan?
“I do think it is different or has been different. At the end of that first signing period, I think it's still a relatively small sample, but I think what Texas A&M did in terms of getting its recruiting class across the finish line this past cycle really did change a lot of things in recruiting. You look at Jimbo Fisher’s three recruiting classes that came before this past record-breaking class and no matter what he's going to say in a public fight with Nick Saban, obviously, NIL money played a huge difference. And when you're getting multiple handfuls of blue-chip guys in here because of NIL and people see sort of those tangible results based on how quickly and how broadly A&M donors were able to sort of mobilize and come together, that sort of showed the playbook for for others to use, and you are seeing 8-10 schools that are doing a really good job mobilizing around NIL when it comes to this recruiting cycle. And and they're the people that are making huge steps up and I think these schools should be lauded for that. College football is about being proactive and finding ways to acquire talent. So what the Miamis and the Tennessees and the Michigan States of the world are doing to sort of raise themselves up a level or two, that’s good for those programs.
And if you're a fan of a school that's not doing that, I think it just increases the urgency of wanting your school to sort of do something similarly, because in college football, again, the name of the game is talent. There will be outliers. There will be teams like Cincinnati that that gets into the College Football Playoff because it ran the table and it may not have those traditional top-10 classes. But you look at the College Football Playoff year in and year our, and there's a reason that the Alabamas, the Georgias, the Ohio States of the world are continually making the College Football Playoff. And it's because they have more talent than the other teams.”
As we've been talking, and I know you're familiar with John Bacon and he's a good author, we've had him as a guest on our CFB doing AMA's before, he just tweeted that he's hearing from too many good sources to ignore that tomorrow Michigan will announce Santa Jay Ono as its next president. He was the former President of Cincinnati and is currently the President of the University of British Columbia, a respected University in Canada in Vancouver. Who is serious about academics and athletics and help transform since the athletics? What have you? Have you heard anything about this? Is this something you would be excited for? What are your thoughts?
“Yeah, it's funny. There's some crossover there in terms of rooting interest and professional life. I think it was back in 2016 when I was the college editor of the Dallas Morning News and it was the first or maybe the 2nd wave of realignment with Big 12 schools and the Big 12 was openly courting schools to see if they were going to add anyone, or if they were going to stay at 10. And I was in charge of college coverage and I sent Chuck Carlton to Cincinnati to talk to a lot of people associated with that university both at the university level and at the athletics level. And it was right after Ono had left Cincinnati. But everyone associated with that school spoke so highly of how well he had tried to put Cincinnati in position to sort of make that leap, and he was very good at schmoozing with the Big 12 powers-that-be. And obviously, in 2016, that's when the Big 12 decided to stand pat. So Cincinnati didn't make that jump that time, but now the groundwork was laid for Cincinnati to eventually make that jump, which they'll be doing. So I think this is a win for Michigan.
The people in here that aren't familiar with Michigan's inner workings, their outgoing president was not a fan of athletics. He had zero really experience with high-level athletics, so it was already going to be an improvement. But this really does look like someone that could understand a unique place like Michigan where a good chunk of their budget is not athletic-related because of the Medical Center is such a big deal in Ann Arbor. But athletics is still such a big deal, too, and it can't be ignored. And it looks like with this next regime, the athletics will probably be embraced a little more, and I think that's a good thing for Michigan sports fans.”