Michigan 26, Iowa 0: Too good to be true?

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Three years ago in front of just a few thousand fans thanks to COVID-related attendance restrictions, Ohio State won its fourth straight Big Ten Championship. It was the same song and dance for Michigan fans as the nine years prior — the only difference was that it was happening a few weeks later because the 2020 Big Ten season got off to a late start because of the pandemic.

Outside of the abnormal timing of the game, the scene felt like a very sick and twisted version of Groundhog Day: a team not named Michigan was playing against a team not named Michigan in Indianapolis — a city that had become more of a punchline than an actual destination for Wolverine fans. It was equal parts depressing and embarrassing.

This time, in particular, felt a little extra helpless to be a Michigan fan, though. Fresh off an undefeated regular season that earned it a No. 2 seed the season before, Ohio State was once again unbeaten and headed for the CFP. In fact, the Buckeyes would go on to steamroll Clemson in their semifinal matchup in a game that would essentially end the Tigers’ time atop (or near the top) of the college football landscape. Michigan, on the other hand, had already seen its season end a full month earlier — a a 27-17 loss to Penn State served as a demoralizing (and merciful) end to a forgettable 2-4 season that was headlined by more canceled games (3) than wins (2).

A few days before the 2020 Big Ten Championship Game, the early signing period seemed to indicate that the future was just as bleak as the present. Ohio State ended up signing a record seven five-star prospects — a similar total to what the Wolverines signed in the Harbaugh, Hoke and Rodriguez eras combined. Michigan was outside of the top 10 in the class rankings, and its class crown jewels (J.J. McCarthy and Donovan Edwards) ended up signing with the Wolverines after Ohio State essentially said "thanks, but no thanks" to the two of them after taking commitments from Kyle McCord and TreVeyon Henderson earlier in the recruiting cycle.

In other words: It appeared Michigan’s best chance at making it to Indianapolis was to buy tickets. If it wanted to get there as a participant, it seemed like lobbying the Big Ten to join the West seemed like a more feasible path to playing in Indy than actually beating mighty Ohio State — a well-oiled machine that showed no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

And to be fair, Ohio State really hasn’t slowed down since that fourth straight Big Ten Championship win. With one exception, that is. The Buckeyes are 24-0 in Big Ten play since hoisting that trophy in Indianapolis on Dec. 19, 2020 … as long as you leave out their three games against the Wolverines.

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If you had told Michigan fans on that Dec. 19 evening that a little more than 1,000 days later, Ohio State wouldn’t have stepped foot in Indianapolis to play in the Big Ten Championship Game at any point since, and that it would be Michigan serving as the Big Ten East's representative each and every subsequent season, you’d probably be met with some variation of “I’ll have what you’re smoking.” But the only thing being smoked in the wake of the latest Big Ten Championship Game by Michigan fans are victory cigars (actually, that’s not true at all. I’m sure plenty of people are smoking tons of mind-altering substances in Ann Arbor. But this works out stylistically in this column, so let’s just roll with it).

It’s not just the fact that Michigan has now three-peated as Big Ten Champions that shows how much things have changed over the past three years, either.

In 2021, Michigan’s breakthrough Big Ten Championship was a landmark event. Fans broke into a rendition of Mr. Brightside so loud in the final minute of that game that it was hard not to be euphoric, whether you were there in person or you could hear the impossible-to-ignore singing through the telecast. Michigan not only snapped its Never Gone To Indy drought — it made sure to complete the feat and hoist Big Ten hardware for a drought that lasted even longer than its Haven’t Beaten Ohio State drought. In 2022, it was all about validation. The year before wasn’t a fluke, and Michigan made sure to prove it … and to stick the landing against a Purdue squad that was eager to play spoiler after an emotional Wolverine win in Columbus the week before.

On Saturday, the feeling was … very different. It wasn’t quite apathy — Michigan fans were still tuned into the game, and the early returns on ratings show that’s very much the case. But winning a Big Ten title seemed more like a duty than a feat. It was a necessary part off the journey. Not an accomplishment worth celebrating. Very few Michigan fans were rushing to buy Big Ten Championship shirts. Instead, their focus quickly shifted to what — and who — was next … if their focus wasn’t already there.

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There was really no buzz leading into the Big Ten Championship Game. I’m notoriously nervous heading into games. And ever single bit of anxiety I felt on Saturday in the space filling the build up to the primetime opening kick had to do with other games around the country — not Michigan’s matchup with Iowa.

I’m sure that luxury will go away next season once the Big Ten West is rightfully launched into the ether this offseason and new blood enters the conference in the form of Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA. But after a three-week stretch where Michigan-Penn State felt so heightened because of the venue, Michigan’s lack of challenges leading up to the game and everything that happened off the field leading up to the game, where Michigan-Maryland felt surprisingly tense given the closer-than-expected nature of the matchup, and where Michigan-Ohio State was as closely contested as it had been since the 2016 matchup, somehow the Big Ten Championship that was once an aspiration for this program became almost a much-needed week off on the schedule.

I know how arrogant this sounds. And Michigan did still had to solve Iowa’s highly touted defense. But once the Wolverines got on the board with an early field goal and hit a double-digit lead after Semaj Morgan’s highlight-reel return put Blake Corum in his comfort zone, the rest of the game was an extended victory lap — and an opportunity for Michigan fans to do some channel surfing to check out the ACC Championship Game. I’m not sure if I should be ashamed to admit this or if this is just an admission that’s met with a lot of head nods from people reading this, but I was just as interested — if not more interested — in what was happening in the Florida State-Louisville game for the final few hours on Saturday night than I was invested in the Michigan-Iowa contest.

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If you missed my “Championship Week Rooting Guide” on Friday, here’s what I said about the Power 5 Championship Games that were about to be played, and what Michigan fans should be rooting for — and in what order.

• Priority No. 1: Michigan — This is not a difficult concept to wrap your head around. And I refuse to elaborate further.

• Priority No. 2: Washington — This isn’t a super realistic option. But it’s the thing I think Michigan fans need to root the hardest for. Despite being unbeaten, already having beaten Oregon and entering the game higher ranked than the Ducks, the Huskies are close to 10-point underdogs for Friday night’s game. Washington’s defense has struggled down the stretch, Michael Penix looks human at times, and Oregon is rolling unlike just about any other team in the country. It’s in Michigan’s best interest to root for Washington to win, because it would keep a better Oregon team out of the playoff mix and potentially put Michigan on a collision course against a Washington team that would be a far more favorable matchup than other possibilities like Oregon, Georgia, Alabama or even Texas.

• Priority No. 3: Florida State — This is close to being 2b, but Michigan fans should absolutely be huge Florida State fans this weekend. It’d probably even be the case if Jordan Travis was still around. But it’s locked in as the no-brainer move now that the Seminoles are without their starting QB for the remainder for the season. There’s a chance the committee makes an unprecedented move and keeps Florida State out of the CFP if all other favorites win — they have the autonomy to do so. But I just have a really hard time believing that happens, given Florida State comes from one of the Power 5 (and really, Power 4) conferences, would come with a ton of lobbying if there was any hint of actual wavering toward keeping them out, and the precedent of holding a 13-0 Power 5 team out would be a MAJOR move. So yeah. Florida State isn’t close to one of the four best teams right now. But with a win on Saturday, they’ll have one of the four best resumes. Michigan fans absolutely need to be rooting for that to happen.

• Priority No. 4: Texas — Michigan needs Texas to win to help fight against the possibility of Alabama sneaking into the playoff. Because a Longhorn win serves as a pretty strong buffer to that happening, thanks to not only a head-to-head win, but a head-to-head win on the road. An Oregon-Texas debate from the committee could end up determining who Michigan plays against in its semifinal matchup (gun to my head right now, I think Oregon is Michigan’s most likely foe), but some style points for Texas coupled with the fact that the Big 12 likely lobbies harder for Texas than whatever is left of the Pac-12 (as odd as it sounds, the Big 12 despises the outgoing Longhorns, but the benefit of a Big 12 team returning to the playoff trumps any lingering hard feelings), could make it a very interesting debate.

• Priority No. 5: Alabama — Now hear me out. There are definitely some situations where Alabama makes sense to be priority No. 2. I can understand the school of thought that is essentially “the best thing for Michigan fans, outside of Michigan winning, would be Georgia getting knocked out of the CFP.” On paper, there seems to be a scenario out there where if Alabama beats Georgia and other favorites take care of business, the SEC could be left out of the playoff altogether, and Michigan could very conceivably be the No. 1 seed and the betting favorite to win it all. Here’s the problem, though: I’m not convinced the committee would keep the SEC out of the playoff. And if Michigan wins and Georgia loses, Michigan moves to the No. 1 seed, and whichever SEC team just happens to creep in to the playoffs would be in that No. 4 spot, giving Michigan arguably its toughest possible matchup imaginable. So if you’re a swing-for-the-fences type thinker, I can’t blame you if you think Alabama beating Georgia is the biggest thing worth rooting for. But I’m placing it here so I can really drive this caveat home: be careful what you wish for, because a really great result on paper could end up being anything but good news for the Wolverines.

Michigan fans weren’t just feeling emboldened to channel surf over the weekend — they were experiencing success in doing so. In fact, it was all playing out perfectly for Michigan fans. It started on Friday night when Washington, a nearly double digit underdog against Oregon, walked away with its second win over the mighty Ducks this season. An Oregon team that’s as high as No. 2 in some advanced metrics and is a top-5 mainstay in just about all of them, was suddenly out of the playoff picture. The Michigan-Oregon matchup at 2-3 that looked like a real possibility heading into this week was suddenly crossed off in red ink before Michigan even reached game day.

With Saturday rolling around, Michigan’s top priority that didn’t involve taking care of business on the field itself was already taken care of. The prospect of a too-good-to-be-true weekend seemed genuinely possible.

And as Saturday’s games started playing out, possible was starting to shift to probable. Texas cruised against Oklahoma State, giving Michigan fans a worry-free noon slate of games. Then came Georgia-Alabama — a game where Alabama was the team to be rooting for — but also a game where I was banging the “must cheer for Alabama” drum a lot less boldly than other Michigan fans were heading into the weekend, as evidenced by the No. 5 placement on my rooting guide, and the major caveat driven home at the end of my write-up.

Still, mighty Georgia saw its 29-game winning streak come to an end at the hands of Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, and while that left open the possibility of Alabama sneaking into the playoffs, it still knocked the two-time defending national champs out of the playoff picture, so once again, the best-case scenario was happening for Michigan all weekend long heading into the primetime games.

Those final two remaining games: Michigan against Iowa — the one game of all 10 conference championship games with the largest point spread (3+ TDs) — and Florida State vs. Louisville — the one game of all 10 conference championship games with the smallest point spread (1 point).

So yeah … once Michigan went up by double digits against the offensively inept Hawkeyes, my eyes started wandering over to the ACC Championship Game. Sue me.

Bold channel flippers weren’t necessarily rewarded with a “good” football game. At times, Florida State and Louisville’s offense looked so inept that Brian Ferentz might have even built up the courage to laugh at them. But they were rewarded with a good result: The Seminoles, on the back of their third-string freshman QB Brock Glenn and his 8-of-21 for 55 yards passing performance, escaped with a 10-point win. The two teams combined for 407 yards of total offense. For reference: there are more than 40 college football that averaged more than that combined effort on their own this fall.

But style points be damned, all five things on the wish list were checked off. And a perfect weekend that seemed like a pipe dream just 30 hours prior looked like it truly may have come to fruition. By the time Saturday night came to an end and members of various fanbases went to bed, Vegas odds had Florida State and Texas with much better odds to make the playoffs than Alabama. Was it really going to happen? Did Michigan really end up getting one of the most ideal paths to a National Championship in the CFP era?

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You know the old adage that if something seems too good to be true, it probably is? Yeah, that’s an old adage for a reason. If there wasn’t truth to it, it wouldn’t be an “old adage.” It would just be “wrong.”

The matchup with an overmatched Florida State turned out to be too good to be true as Michigan’s dream Friday and Saturday turned into a nightmare on Sunday. In many ways, it was a truly shocking decision by the committee. But at the same time, it wasn’t. If you read my write-ups for Priority No. 3 (Florida State) and Priority No. 5 (Alabama) in my rooting guide, I could see it coming as a possible scenario even at the start of the week. But there’s a huge difference between seeing something coming and actually having it come to life.

The moment Michigan found out it would be playing Alabama instead of Florida State, something that was captured on video, almost instantly became a meme at Michigan’s expense. And let’s be honest, if Ohio State or Michigan State was on the receiving end of this, I’d be using this as rivalry slam dunk fodder, too. It’s not a great look, even if it was largely driven by true shock rather than fear of Alabama.

The Vegas odds that had Alabama as the fifth most likely team to make the playoffs when everyone was going to bed the night before suddenly had Alabama on the doorstep of catching Michigan to become the favorite to win it all. Here’s what those Vegas odds looked like Sunday afternoon after the announcement:

• Michigan +170

• Alabama +200

• Texas +250

• Washington +750

But as the day went on and the shock of the moment (along with the pure craziness of a 13-0 name brand team being left out of the playoffs) sunk in, things didn’t — and don’t — necessarily look like the death sentence for Michigan it may have felt like in the moment.

Vegas odds can be telling. But they’re also not meant to be predictive. They’re meant to be set in a way that maximizes as much money-making as possible. And Alabama draws some big-money bets because, well, it’s freaking Alabama. Consequently, I lean heavily on SP+ Rankings in this space because I think it’s pretty widely regarded as the “industry standard” by people whose opinions I trust and respect the most. Here’s what Bill Connelly, keeper of the SP+, had to say about implied national title odds according to his system:

• Michigan: 49%

• Texas: 25%

• Alabama: 17%

• Washington: 10%

In other words: Michigan’s chances of winning it all are about as good as the other three teams’ odds — combined.

That is either a very reassuring stat. Or a very terrifying one, if you’re afraid of expectations.

But even if you subscribe to a different computer ranking/advanced analytic service as your north star, if you take a look at them all side-by-side, you notice a few trends when it comes to this year’s CFP crop. Take for instance these four sets of rankings: SP+, FEI, ESPN’s FPI and Sagarin ratings:

The two biggest things that stick out to me here:

• Michigan is No. 1 in all four measures

• There’s a lot of white (a.k.a. schools that didn’t make the playoffs) at the top

If you're taking an aggregate of those four rankings, here’s how it shakes out in terms of average placement:

1. Michigan (1)

2. Ohio State (2.75)

3. Oregon (3.25)

4. Penn State (4.25)

5. Georgia (4.75)

6. Texas (5.75)

7. Alabama (7.25)

8. Oklahoma (9.5)

t-9. Florida State (10.25)

t-9. Washington (10.25)

In other words: Don’t go overboard with your “woe is me” act in the aftermath of these pairings, Michigan fans. And given the amount of sulking I was doing after Alabama got in over Florida State, yes — I need to take my own advice, too.

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Michigan ended up earning what was essentially the toughest possible semifinal matchup it could have received — at least after Friday’s games were done and Oregon was no longer an option. But it also emerged from the weekend as the betting favorite to win it all — something that wasn’t the case when a No. 1 Georgia team that was on a historic winning streak headed to Atlanta to play for an SEC Championship on Saturday.

Yes, there’s a major difference between taking on a team that has a great resume this season but just so happens to be without its starting QB because of an injury and taking on a team whose resume probably shouldn’t earn it a spot in the playoff thanks to some struggles in September, but is coming off a win over the best team in America and also just so happens to have the most talented roster in America.

But once the sting of potentially having one of the most lopsided CFP matchups in history fall right into your lap dies down, the reason these kids signed up to play for Michigan should come back into focus. You come to Ann Arbor to play the biggest games on the biggest stages. And it sure as hell doesn’t get much bigger than Nick Saban and Alabama at the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, with a berth to the National Championship on the line.

Michigan earned this opportunity. And while it may still feel a little bit like a gut punch after how the weekend’s deliberations played out, it’s anything but that in the grand scheme of things.

Just three years removed from watching Ohio State hoist that fourth consecutive Big Ten Championship trophy in the air, in the midst of a 15 year period where the Wolverines had only beat their rivals one single time, the University of Michigan is now the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. The program is atop the AP rankings for the first time in a quarter century. The Wolverines are two wins away from a National Championship. And they’ll be favored in both games if they take care of business in the first.

Michigan hasn’t just been looking to earn a do-over after a poor showing in last year’s playoff, the team has been on a quest for validation all season long. It’s playing not only to keep its 2023 record unblemished, but to keep its accomplishments from the past few years legitimate even through the guise of hindsight given all the off-field distractions that were thrown its way this season.

Having to go through Alabama, modern college football’s final boss for the BCS and CFP eras, will go a long way toward legitimizing whatever Michigan can accomplish this postseason.

Now it’s time to make it happen.

And I promise there won’t be any channel changing this time around.

Here are my takeaways from Michigan’s Championship win on Saturday, the subsequent roller coaster of emotions on Sunday and a look ahead to what comes next: