Highlights: Michigan's recruiting is on the rise; outlook for 2024 and beyond
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Michigan’s recruiting is on the rise. One month removed from being outside of the top 50 in the national recruiting rankings with pledges from just a handful of candidates, Michigan has vaulted up the rankings thanks to a number of recent commitments, with more likely on the way very soon. Since the second week of June (the first month schools can host student-athletes on official visits), Michigan has received oral pledges from seven different players from all across the country: DB Kainoa Winston (Washington DC), DL Jaylen Williams (Illinois), WR Jacob Washington (Louisiana), RB Donovan Johnson (Florida), OL Kaden Strayhorn (Florida), RB Jasper Parker (Louisiana) and LB Chase Taylor (Georgia). The Wolverines also kicked off their 2026 class with a pledge from QB Brady Hart (Florida), a top-10 overall QB in that class and a top-150 overall player.
In other words, despite still being nearly 10 weeks away from the season actually kicking off, there’s been plenty to write and talk about the last week or so.
Below is a roundup of recent radio appearances I’ve done that have touched on recruiting and other Michigan-related topics. After that, there are some highlights from various premium subscriber Q&As I’ve held at the newsletter this month where I’ve answered questions from subscribers. The most recent one went live this morning and can be found here. These are open exclusively to premium subscribers.
If you’re a free subscriber and want full access to all premium options, you can explore monthly and annual subscription options here
Radio recap
Each week, I discuss Michigan sports over at The Michigan Insider with Sam Webb and Ira Weintraub on Sports Talk 1050 WTKA The Ticket in Ann Arbor. Here are recordings of my last two appearances, along with an outline of what was discussed at various points of the appearances:
Listen (June 24)
Topic guide
0:00: Intro
1:30: On Michigan’s recent uptick in recruiting commitments and how people are reacting to the fact that some of these are of the three-star variety.
3:15: On Michigan being able to pull in players with strong ties to other programs, most notably Michigan State legacies.
6:30: On Michigan’s current class and how its identity could be in the trenches and what it means about program philosophy.
9:00: On Michigan’s start to the 2026, 2027 and 2028 class and the importance of locking in a QB this early in the process.
Listen (June 17)
Topic guide
0:30: Intro
1:30: On how the Michigan-Texas opener this year compares to last year’s Texas-Alabama non-conference matchup and how I see it playing out.
3:40: On Quinn Ewers — how good is he and what will he mean in this year’s matchup?
6:30: On Michigan-Ohio State and the rising tensions in the rivalry and whether it’s fair to consider Ryan Day “a walking excuse.”
10:00: NBA Finals talk, namely Tim Hardaway and what his future may look like going forward.
Subscriber Q&A recap
All month long, we’ve been holding weekly premium subscriber Q&As on Thursdays. This week’s will be active throughout the day at this link. Those will continue throughout the rest of the offseason. If you haven’t been actively participating, here are some highlights from the last few chats. You can read all of this month’s Q&As in full here (6/20), here (6/13), here (6/6) and here (5/30).
Looking to 2025, do you see Michigan football improving over 2024?
This is a tough one to answer because you could look at it a couple different ways. From a schedule standpoint, there's a LITTLE relief (emphasis on little ... but at least it's not Michigan's gauntlet it'll face this fall). Oregon drops off the schedule and you don't have a non-conference game against Texas. But you swap that Texas game with a road game against Oklahoma. Your home game against USC becomes a road one. The dropped Oregon game becomes a Wisconsin one (albeit at home). So while the schedule may be a liiiiiiiitle easier (no road trip to Columbus), it's still going to be a top-5 schedule in terms of difficulty at first glance. (Brief tangent: this is why you never saw me complaining about Michigan's boring Septembers the last few seasons. Home and homes against Texas and Oklahoma sound awesome on the surface but when you make it to the actual season and you have those matchups sprinkled in with a handful of top-25 opponents in the newly loaded Big Ten and it's a really tall task.)
From a roster standpoint, it feels like a bit of a step back. Michigan's Big Four rising juniors that it fought to keep in the stable this offseason (Will Johnson, Colston Loveland, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant) are all almost certainly gone for the NFL, as all are potential Day 1 NFL Draft picks. That in itself is really tough, especially without clear candidates as difference makers to step in and replace them. At the same time, I think it's a safe bet to expect better QB play in 2025. I don't think it's controversial to say this fall feels like the worst (or if you think that's too pessimistic, how about "most unproven") Michigan's QB situation will likely be for the next decade. Whether it's Jadyn Davis with more development, whoever rises as the starter in 2024 having an extra year of seasoning in them or an incoming transfer, both the floor and the ceiling of the 2025 QB position feels like it could/should/will be higher than 2024. Outside of that, a lot is unknown. Michigan's last recruiting class felt more like a good depth class than one ripe with difference-makers. But there are other ways to build a team than through recruiting, and if Michigan really does get its NIL in order, it feels like a team where a lot of holes can (and hopefully will) be filled via the portal.
So long story short, I think the team may be slightly worse but a similar outlook (9-3, 10-2) still feels about right given the schedule.
Besides talent Michigan also lost a lot of leadership to the NFL draft this year. Are there any upperclassman on this years team that may go under the radar on the stat sheet but Michigan fans should pay attention to for the leadership and intangibles?
The Big Four juniors that all decided to come back will get plenty of attention here, and rightfully so. And I fully expect Donovan Edwards to be a captain and a key voice in the locker room. When it comes to some folks who may not be household names to casual fans that I think could be major players when it comes to leadership, here are three that come to mind:
Rod Moore -- This is a name that most people know, but it's probably one that won't be front of mind given his season-ending injury this offseason (and given what others have done in that spot in years past for Michigan). When you suffer a major injury, you can do one of two things. One, you can more or less leave the team and head back home/go to your preferred training-rehab facility and do your own thing. Two, you can stick around the team and still do everything you can to help your team, even if you can't be an asset on the field. In today's college football landscape, one looks like it will be more and more popular given all the other factors at play. It's what Cade McNamara did when he was a captain of the team and went down with an injury. But right now, Moore looks firmly in the second camp and if it stays that way, it can be a huge help for Michigan as a whole, but particularly the secondary, which could use a veteran voice as a lot of new pieces try and fit together.
Myles Hinton -- Last year's starting offensive line is basically wiped out, but its most experienced returnee brings a lot to the table in terms of on-field experience and off-field wisdom. Hinton played in key spots last season that can help a younger OL this year when they need to look to people who have been in these spots before. He's also a Stanford/Michigan-educated guy who does all the right things off the field and comes from a great family. I know he's a transfer and I know the Michigan Man term gets thrown around a lot, and assigning it to someone who's only been here two years may seem a bit much, but I definitely get that vibe from him.
Max Bredeson -- Prepare yourselves now. But I'm going to be a card-carrying member of the Max Bredeson fan club all season long. If you're looking for intangibles and little edges that can make Michigan stand out that the general public isn't usually lauding, he's the first person that comes to mind for me. He embraces everything this program stands for, puts it all on the line for his teammates and is the classic walk-on-turned-contributor that almost always end up being huge in leadership spots, too.
How are you feeling about our wide receiver corps? Is Colston going to have to have a monster year to overcome the deficiencies of the wideouts? Also, is it too soon to start referring to the trio of Morris, Morgan, and Moore as "the lawfirm"?
First of all, love the nickname suggestion. I might need to steal that one.
As for the WR room and how I feel about it, it's probably near the top of my concern list heading into the season. But I feel better about the depth now than I did a month or two ago with Michigan making a couple moves in the portal (getting Amorion Walker back and committed to the offensive side of the ball, and then the addition of CJ Charleston out of Youngstown State). I still don't see a lot of difference-makers on the team, though. Luckily, that's not necessarily a prerequisite for success for Michigan. I think this year's offense will likely resemble the 2021 team more than the 2022 and 2023 team, because it's probably getting Cade McNamara game-managing like QB play rather than giving a QB more of a green light than JJ McCarthy had. Michigan was still able to beat Ohio State and go to the CFP in 2021 with Cornelius Johnson being the team's most "successful" WR with a 40-627-3 line. The next best WR was Roman Wilson at 25-420-3. These were both the sophomore versions of those WRs, too, not the guys we saw last year that looked like bonafide draft picks. So can Tyler Morris have a Cornelius Johnson-type year in 2021? Yes, I think that's realistic. I'm hopeful Kirk Campbell can find creative ways to use Semaj Morgan because he feels like a potential difference maker if given the ball in space, too.
The biggest element of Michigan's passing game is touched on in the initial question: Colston Loveland not only feels like he'll be Michigan's top pass-catcher in 2024, but the threat he poses to opposing defenses (as well as Michigan's running game) should give some of MIchigan's young WRs ample opportunities to make plays in single coverage.
Is there any position group you think has a chance to be better in 2024 than in 2023?
The interior defensive line will definitely be better -- and maybe the defensive line as a whole. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant with another year of development is a terrifying thought, and those playing outside of them should eat accordingly as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the linebackers outperform last year's unit, too. I realize that's a weird thing to say given that Michigan had two linebackers drafted last season, but I feel like Jaishawn Barham has a higher ceiling than any LB of the Jim Harbaugh Era. That may feel like blasphemy since I know Junior Colson is held in really high regard. But Barham seems more well-rounded to me and can be an asset rather than a liability in coverage.
The Go Blue ticket packs that went on sale this week allowed you to purchase tickets to:
One game from Group A: Michigan State, Oregon, Texas, and USC
Two games from Group B: Arkansas State, Fresno State, Minnesota, and Northwestern
Ignoring personal scheduling conflicts and assuming equal quality of seats, which games would you have picked for your package and why?
Here's how I'd rank the games in each group:
Group A:
- Texas
- Oregon
- USC
- Michigan State
Group B:
- Minnesota
- Fresno State
- Northwestern
- Arkansas State
The closest gap would be the one between Oregon and Texas. That's definitely a 1a vs. 1b situation. But Texas gives the slight nod to me given the fact that I live in Texas and have a bunch of friends/family with ties there that make the game more interesting. It's also going to be a top-3 opponent early in the season and I know everyone is stir crazy right about now. One could make an argument that the Oregon game could be more important in the grand scheme of things (late losses are more punitive, on paper this is a battle between the Nos. 2 and 3 teams in the Big Ten in the first season with divisions scrapped in the Big Ten, so this could have major tiebreaker implications when it comes to a B1G Championship Game berth), but there seems to be more history between Michigan and Texas to give that game the slight nod for me. Plus there will be a lot more opportunities to see Oregon in the Big House in future years than the Longhorns.
USC and Michigan State round out Group A for me. I'm not that high on USC this year, but it's still the first time getting to see the Trojans play Michigan since the Rose Bowl about ~15 years ago (a not-so-fun game that was still a great memory for me because it was my first time in Pasadena). Michigan State should be a blowout, which is always fun to witness, but at some point it starts feeling like a re-run. So that's my clear bottom of that group.
For Group B, Minnesota has to get top billing because the Little Brown Jug still means a lot to me. And given the East-West split's impact on past schedules, this will only be the fourth time since 2017 these two teams have met. Fresno State is a close second for two reasons: First, it's the opener and there's always a special excitement about being at the opener. I imagine they honor the 2023 National Champs at that game, too, and that's an extra incentive. The other reason: Fresno State is a pretty damn good program -- certainly in the top 10% or so of G5 programs. The Bulldogs started 8-1 last season, including road wins at Purdue and Arizona State, and ultimately went to a bowl game and won by 27. That sounds like more fun than watching Michigan play Northwestern to me. And then Arkansas State gets last place. It'll be fun to make a few Butch Jones jokes given the fact that people tried connecting him to Michigan about three coaching searches ago. But if there's one game on the schedule I'm least excited for, it's pretty clearly that one.
After the big three (Ohio, Oregon, Texas), which games scare you the most for 2024?
I'd say the next three are Washington, USC and as odd as it sounds, probably Fresno State. The Huskies are kind of in a tier of their own. There's a lot of talent on that team and it's on the road, so that's a pretty clear No. 4. I mentioned in a different question that I really don't fear USC that much this year, but there's still a lot of talent on that team and it could be a bit of a style change for Michigan (though I still feel like it'll be a bigger adjustment for USC than for Michigan). And then Fresno State sneaks into that third spot for me, with @ Indiana and @ Illinois also getting a little consideration, because Fresno is sneaky talented and Game 1 of a new regime and a whole new offense could be a slow start and be a little more unexpectedly scary that most would expect on paper.
I know this is fan-brain - but a coach and an administrator both leaving Ryan Day's program for Moore's is...maybe a coincidence? Alford and Day maybe just didn't jive. Administrators aren't coaches, and it sounds like Dunstan had a lot of connections at UofM.
Still, it's gotta make you skeptical of whatever is happening in Day's program. I know I'm looking thru maize-colored glasses (altho those glasses do have a rose-bowl tinted hue at the moment, with golden flecks of championship in the rim) - but I think it's fair to ask, is there something wrong with OSU's program? They brought back a ton of talent...but ran off a guy who would have entered the season as the Big Ten's best and most-proven QB, brought in a famous name as an OC but one who definitely seems different than what Ryan Day made his name doing, and didn't really improve on the OL. Oh and their AD is still using signs as an excuse for The Game the last 3 years - including 2023.
There's definitely good to be seen there - again, they returned most of their defense and Henderson, added Judkins, Chip Kelley is no fool and matches Will Howard's incoming talents. Dunstan and Alford probably left for unrelated reasons. You don't have to squint to be confident in the Buckeyes this year.
But I also think there are signs of concern for the Buckeye faithful, and I'm not sure if I'm squinting or if they really do have the look of a talented program that's scrambling for some locker room/off the field reasons.
I think there's something to it. I imagine it's pretty tense around those parts these days. Everyone's aware of the elephant in the room and it probably makes for a far less relaxed atmosphere. For coaches, that may not be as big of a deal. But for support staff/recruiting people/etc, what your day-to-day quality of life is like probably plays a pretty key role into how much you like your job (I imagine that's the case for most of us, too). I don't think it's outlandish to say this could very well be Ryan Day's last season as Ohio State's head coach if the Buckeyes come up short against Michigan for a fourth straight year, so there's also something to be said for job stability, jumping to Ann Arbor where Sherrone Moore likely has some time to establish his system. Whereas if you're attaching yourself to the Ryan Day wagon, your runway may only be one more season.
Scott, I still have two football questions. 1) In your heart of hearts, do you believe that Sherrone can be as good of a head coach as Jim, and keep this team competing for championships for, say, the next five years? And 2) I feel like some position groups that I haven't heard you analyze are the offensive line and the defensive ends, unless I missed it. Thoughts on those?
1) Honestly, no. That's not an indictment of Moore whatsoever. He was my clear pick to replace Harbaugh and I'm thrilled he ended up being the guy. But that bar is so high that it's not really even fair to bring to the table to discuss. Harbaugh is the rare coach that's not only incredibly coveted at both the college and NFL levels, he's been incredibly successful at both levels, too. He made the Final Four in the NFL in his first three years as a head coach. He turned Stanford into a college football powerhouse after inheriting one of the worst college football programs in the country, and then he took a Michigan program that was at rock bottom and not only turned the program around and got it back to national prominence, he won a National Championship while riding off into the sunset. That's just not something that's going to be replicatable.
The good news: Moore doesn't have to be as good as Harbaugh to keep Michigan on top. He can be a great coach (something I expect him to be) and Michigan can continue being among the nation's best. A perennial National Championship contender? Honestly, that's probably a tough ask. But let's be honest with ourselves, the program wasn't in that conversation for the vast majority of the Harbaugh era, either. I think over the next five years, Michigan may find itself with one decent chance at winning a National Championship. But I don't expect the team to win that ultimate prize again during that five-year span. Not an indictment of Michigan at all. Just a sign of just how hard it is for a northern team to win it all (Northern champs over the last 20 years have been Michigan last season, Ohio State in 2014 and ... that's it).
2) I feel great about Michigan's defensive ends heading into this season. There's not as much proven depth as the past few years, but Josaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore are both All-Big Ten caliber starters and guys like Enow Etta and TJ Guy look ready to step in to that EDGE3/4 spot and can provide 20 or so quality snaps when called upon. The best thing they have going for them -- they'll be playing alongside the best interior defensive line in America, and the attention that Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will command will 100% open up opportunities for Michigan's defensive ends to get some great stats -- better than what Graham and Grant will produce.
The offensive line requires a little more blind faith because of all the turnover. But I like the talent in that room, I have a great deal of respect for Grant Newsome and I expect Sherrone Moore to still have his hands on that group a bit, too. Newsome has done a great job coaching other positions but now gets to step into his "natural" position and I think he's 100% a rising star in this profession, and a future head coach. I'm very excited to see what he can do now that he's in charge of that OL room.
Dusty May seems to be killing it in the portal, the roster looks pretty set aside from maybe 1 player. What do you think the expectations for this season should be? Additionally how much can they exceed or fail those expectations?
I think for Year 1, a fair expectation for Michigan is to make the NCAA Tournament. That's clearly a significant step up from a decades-worst 8-24 mark last season and isn't baking in excuses for Dusty May in his first year. But it's also not setting the bar too high or weighing conference finish or deepness of tourney runs in as criteria. If Michigan made it in as a 10 seed and lost R1 to a 7 seed, I'm sure it would feel pretty bad in the moment, but when you take a step back and compare it to where the program was a year ago, I think most people would feel just fine with that context in mind.
Setting "making the tournament" as the expectation would give Michigan more room to exceed its expectation and fail it. If Michigan doesn't make the tournament, it would be disappointing based on how I feel about May's new-look roster, but I don't think fans will be meeting him with pitchforks. The product we'll get this upcoming season is guaranteed to be better than last year, and I think Michigan's fanbase will hopefully meet any early growing pains with at least a little grace.
1) Often times creators/innovators are bound by their original creation and are unable to adapt. This feels true in football as well (Rich Rod, Mike Leach, Chip Kelly on offense). With that said, w/ respect to Michigan’s D, how worried are you that Wink will be the same and make the players adapt to his scheme vs adapting to the players? Specifically thinking of his proclivity to blitz, which may not be needed given out DL/Edge talent.
2) Along the same lines as above, Minter spent at least 3 years as a DB coach- and his version of the Ravens D was lauded as being schematically advanced and ahead (I’m sure having Sainristil etc helped). How much do you fear a drop off in terms of just scheme/continuity from Minter/Clink to Wink/Morgan?
3) What do you think is more likely- Michigan football makes the playoff or Michigan basketball makes a Sweet 16?
1) There's definitely some concern about Wink running a variation of the Michigan defense we've all come to love over the last three years that leans too much on the aggressive/blitzing side of things, largely for the point you lay out in your question: it seems unnecessary based on where Michigan's strengths should lie entering the season. At this stage, though, all we can either do is give him the benefit of the doubt. Or at least wait. There's no point in expecting the worst. I also think Michigan's defense is uniquely triggered because of the late stages of the Don Brown defense and how exploitable that became after a few years of pretty significant success. My only message of comfort there would be that there are people still within Schembechler Hall that remember that same feeling Michigan fans still have, too, and I'd like to hope that can help steer some decisions moving forward.
2) It won't be the same defense we've seen the last few years. And part of that has to do with every defensive assistant from a year ago now being gone. But it was really huge to land someone to run the defense that has familiarity with the defense as a whole (and how much more familiar can you get than with the guy who created the defense?). Nobody can argue with how successful the Macdonald/Minter defenses were the last three years. But like all things in college football, people will catch up, and maybe it's not the worst thing in the world that Michigan will be doing some recalibrating on D anyway. No, it doesn't feel like someone was close to "solving" it like Don Brown's was a few years back. But you can't do the same thing year in and year out without expecting someone to catch up, so in an odd way this could be a forced zag once others start getting closer to understanding your zig.
As for the year over year dropoff, I expect more dropoff in the Minter to Wink area than in the Clink to Morgan area. This is no shot at Clink, but a lot of his appeal was on the trail. He was a fine Xs and Os coach, but I didn't see him as the guy that made the secondary tick (and I think Michigan's reluctance to elevate him this offseason tells you how they may have felt about that, too). I think Morgan can be a comparable replacement to Clink when it comes to preparation. Wink has a much tougher act to follow. I consider Jesse Minter one of college football's five best defensive coordinators over the past decade-plus.
3) Give me the Michigan football playoff. I think the Wolverines start the season in the top 10, and 12 teams make the playoffs. Yes, that's an absolutely brutal schedule. But I think 9-3 gets a team with Michigan's SOS and brand into the tournament. I wouldn't be shocked if Michigan hoops makes a Sweet 16, but purely from an odds standpoint, the former seems more likely than the latter.