CFP National Championship Game preview: Why I'm taking the Wolverines
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If this headline looks familiar, it should. It’s the same format I used for my Rose Bowl preview. And if it aint broke, I have no plans to fix it.
Heading into Monday’s National Championship Game, that’s probably the philosophy the two teams competing for college football’s ultimate prize have, too. They’re the lone two remaining unbeaten teams in college football this season. And they’ve both reached this spot playing their brand of football.
Washington boasts the hottest passing game in the country. Heisman finalist Michael Penix comes in with two straight 300-plus yard passing games against top-5 opponents. He went 27-of-39 for 319 yards against Oregon, then leveled up in the CFP Semifinals against Texas, going 29-of-38 through the air for 430 yards and 2 TDs. He’s surrounded by NFL-caliber talent at the WR spot, with Rome Odunze arguably being the best 1-on-1, go-up-and-grab it WRs college football has seen in some time. And Penix also just so happens to be protected by the top offensive line in the country. This is a dangerous offense and its leader is entering Monday’s title game on the heels of the best game of his career.
Michigan comes in as the nation’s most complete team. I guess it makes sense to start with the defense, because it’s on top of the most statistical lists. But what makes Michigan such a great team is the fact that there’s a debate about where to start with this. Michigan has the No. 1 defense in the country in the SP+ rankings. It has allowed the fewest points of any team in America despite the fact it has played in 14 games already. The Wolverines have given up the fewest passing touchdowns in the nation this season. The defensive front just put on a masterclass of how to get pressure early and often against Alabama of all teams. But on the other side of the ball, the offense is pretty damn impressive, too. Blake Corum leads all college football players in touchdowns (26) and points (156) with sizeable cushions over the second-place player in both categories. Washington may have more yards and points this season, but the Wolverines boast an identical points per play average as the Huskies (0.569), with the only difference between the two being the number of offensive snaps the two teams play, with the faster-tempo Huskies getting the nod there. The Wolverines are also incredibly disciplined, earning the fewest penalties per game in the country while also having the best turnover margin in the nation. Name a stat, and Michigan is at least in the neighborhood of the top of it. There are no Heisman finalists on this roster, but there’s also not a glaring weakness on it.
So who gets the nod in this matchup? Or if you’ve already read the headline of this newsletter and used your detective skills to deduce that I’m picking Michigan to win it all on Monday night, why am I giving the Wolverines the edge? Let’s break it down.
